Derek Carr's rushing yards props present a fascinating contradiction - he averages 4.43 yards against a 2.29 line, creating a massive +2.1 differential, yet the over has hit just 50% with negative ROI. This suggests consistent line value despite mediocre hit rates, making selective over betting the smart approach.
Expert Analysis
The Derek Carr rushing yards market reveals a classic case of oddsmakers undervaluing a quarterback's mobility while bettors fail to capitalize effectively. Carr's 4.43-yard average nearly doubles the typical 2.29 line, creating substantial mathematical value that should theoretically crush over bets. However, the 50% over rate with -4.5% ROI indicates this edge isn't translating to profits, likely due to high variance in quarterback rushing totals. Carr's rushing production stems primarily from scrambles under pressure and designed rollouts rather than planned runs, making his yardage highly game-script dependent. When New Orleans trails and Carr faces consistent pressure, his rushing attempts spike as he extends plays. Conversely, in comfortable leads or against strong pass rushes that force quick releases, Carr barely moves from the pocket. The three-game over streak suggests recent game conditions have favored his mobility, but this could easily reverse based on opponent defensive schemes. The identical -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing despite the average differential, meaning successful betting requires identifying specific game conditions rather than blindly backing the mathematical edge. Saints offensive line health, opponent pass rush strength, and projected game flow become crucial factors in determining when this rushing yards value actually translates to winning bets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +2.1 average differential represents genuine value that oddsmakers consistently underestimate, but the 50% hit rate demands selective application. Target games where New Orleans projects to trail or face aggressive pass rushes that force Carr into scramble situations. The recent three-game over streak suggests favorable conditions, but avoid chasing in obvious negative game scripts where Carr stays planted in clean pockets.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 12.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 17.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 14.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | -4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Derek Carr has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 7 of 14 games (50%) across the 2023-2024 seasons. While the over rate is perfectly average, his 4.43-yard average significantly exceeds typical 2.29 lines, creating consistent value despite mixed results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Derek Carr rushing yards props, but be selective. His 4.43 average vs 2.29 lines creates mathematical value, but the 50% hit rate with negative ROI means you need favorable game conditions like trailing game script or strong opponent pass rush.
What's Derek Carr's average Rushing Yards all games?
Derek Carr averages 4.43 rushing yards per game, which creates a substantial +2.1 differential against his typical 2.29 prop line. This near-doubling of the betting line represents significant mathematical value that oddsmakers consistently underestimate in the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derek Carr rushing yards overs when New Orleans projects to trail or faces aggressive pass rushes. Avoid when the Saints have comfortable leads or face teams likely to generate quick pressure that forces immediate throws rather than scrambling opportunities.