Derek Carr's passing yards props present a compelling over opportunity, hitting 60.0% of the time with a 6-4-0 over/under record in his last 10 games. Despite averaging 214.5 yards against lines of 219.6, the positive 14.6% ROI on overs suggests market inefficiency. Lean over on Carr's passing yards props.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's passing yards trend reveals a fascinating market disconnect that sharp bettors can exploit. While his 214.5-yard average sits 5.1 yards below the typical 219.6 line, the 60% over rate tells a different story about game flow and variance. The Saints quarterback has shown remarkable consistency in exceeding expectations when it matters most, particularly evident in his ability to string together three consecutive overs during his peak stretch. The negative differential suggests books are overadjusting for Carr's perceived limitations, creating value on the over side. His 14.6% ROI on overs versus the brutal -23.6% under ROI indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing. The Saints' offensive scheme under Dennis Allen has consistently put Carr in positions to accumulate yards through short-to-intermediate passing, even when trailing. Game script often favors passing volume in the second half, explaining why Carr frequently surpasses modest projections despite underwhelming first-half performances. The key concern lies in the Saints' inconsistent offensive line play, which can limit Carr's ability to work through progressions and find the chunk plays necessary to clear higher numbers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate combined with strong 14.6% ROI suggests the market consistently undervalues Carr's passing volume potential. Target games where the Saints face competitive spreads or high-scoring opponents, as these scenarios maximize Carr's throwing attempts and late-game urgency. Primary risk involves defensive-minded game scripts where New Orleans controls clock through Alvin Kamara's ground attack.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 217.5 | 219.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 224.5 | 184.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 214.5 | 248.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 206.5 | 269.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 232.5 | 236.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 211.5 | 165.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 204.5 | 239.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 240.5 | 142.0 | -98.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 219.5 | 243.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 224.5 | 200.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Derek Carr has gone over his passing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. This 60% success rate on overs has generated a solid 14.6% return on investment for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet over on Derek Carr's passing yards props. The 60% over rate and 14.6% ROI indicate consistent market undervaluation. Target competitive games where the Saints will need to throw frequently, avoiding defensive slugfests where New Orleans controls tempo through running.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Derek Carr has averaged 214.5 passing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 5.1 yards below the typical line of 219.6. Despite this negative differential, his 60% over rate suggests he consistently exceeds market expectations when game flow demands volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Derek Carr passing yards overs in competitive games with tight spreads or high totals. The Saints quarterback performs best when forced to throw frequently in the second half, making games with playoff implications or divisional matchups ideal spots for over wagers.