Derek Carr's passing yards props present a marginal edge toward overs, hitting 56% of the time across 25 games with a +6.9% ROI. His 228.52 average sits exactly at typical lines, but the consistent over rate suggests subtle market inefficiency. Lean over in favorable game scripts.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's passing yards props reveal a subtle but exploitable pattern that reflects both his quarterback profile and New Orleans' offensive identity. The 56% over rate with +6.9% ROI indicates the market consistently undervalues his volume potential by small margins. This edge stems from Carr's risk-averse style that prioritizes completion percentage over explosive plays, leading to steady accumulation that often pushes him just over modest lines. The Saints' offense under Dennis Allen has leaned heavily on short-to-intermediate passing concepts that generate volume through repetition rather than big chunks. Carr's 228.52 average sitting exactly at typical lines suggests oddsmakers have calibrated well to his baseline, but they appear to underweight his floor-raising tendencies in neutral game scripts. The lack of extreme streaks (longest over streak just 3 games) indicates this isn't a volatile trend prone to dramatic regression. However, the modest differential warns against overconfidence - this edge exists in the margins and requires selective application. Weather conditions, game flow, and Saints' rushing success rates will significantly impact whether Carr needs to air it out or can rely on Alvin Kamara and the ground game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Derek Carr's consistent 56% over rate reflects his volume-oriented style that the market slightly undervalues. Target overs in projected competitive games where New Orleans will need sustained drives, particularly in dome environments. The main risk is negative game scripts where the Saints abandon passing early or weather conditions that favor ground-heavy approaches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 217.5 | 219.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 224.5 | 184.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 214.5 | 248.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 206.5 | 269.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 232.5 | 236.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 211.5 | 165.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 204.5 | 239.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 240.5 | 142.0 | -98.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 219.5 | 243.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 224.5 | 200.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 240.5 | 264.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 245.5 | 197.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 227.5 | 319.0 | +91.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 213.5 | 218.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 224.5 | 119.0 | -105.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Derek Carr has hit the over on his passing yards props in 14 of 25 games (56%) since joining New Orleans, producing a solid +6.9% ROI for over bettors despite averaging exactly 228.52 yards against typical 228.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing Yards all games?
Lean over on Derek Carr's passing yards props, particularly in competitive indoor games. His 56% over rate and positive ROI reflect a market that slightly undervalues his volume-oriented style and the Saints' pass-heavy approach in neutral scripts.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing Yards all games?
Derek Carr averages 228.52 passing yards across 25 games, sitting exactly at typical market lines of 228.5. This precise calibration suggests oddsmakers understand his baseline, but the 56% over rate indicates they underweight his floor-raising tendencies.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derek Carr passing yards overs in projected competitive games in dome environments where New Orleans will need sustained drives. Avoid in bad weather or when the Saints are heavily favored and likely to lean on their rushing attack.