Derek Carr's passing touchdown props present a perfectly balanced coin flip with a 50.0% over rate across 24 games. The minimal 0.1 touchdown differential above the 1.5 line suggests accurate market pricing, while negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient bookmaker adjustments. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's passing touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating in a tightly constrained offensive system that consistently hovers around the 1.5 touchdown threshold. His 1.58 average represents statistical noise rather than meaningful edge, falling within normal variance of the standard line. The Saints' offensive approach under Dennis Allen has emphasized ball control and field position over explosive passing plays, creating a ceiling that limits Carr's touchdown upside while maintaining a floor that prevents consistent unders. The current two-game under streak follows a longer seven-game over run, demonstrating the random walk nature of this prop. New Orleans' red zone efficiency and target distribution have remained remarkably stable, with Carr neither benefiting from nor suffering under specific game script tendencies. The negative ROI on both sides reflects sharp line movement that eliminates value before kickoff. Without meaningful splits data or identifiable patterns in game flow, weather, or matchup dependencies, Carr's touchdown props represent pure variance plays where the house edge consistently grinds down long-term profitability regardless of betting direction.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Derek Carr's passing touchdown props offer no discernible edge with a dead-even 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides. The market has efficiently priced these props, eliminating the value needed for profitable long-term betting. Save your bankroll for spots with clearer statistical advantages rather than gambling on pure coin flips.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Derek Carr props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Derek Carr has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in exactly 12 of 24 games for a 50.0% success rate. His 12-12 record with a 1.58 average against the typical 1.5 line shows perfectly balanced results with minimal edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Passing TDs all games?
Neither over nor under offers betting value on Derek Carr's passing touchdowns. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides make this a clear pass. Focus your bankroll on props with identifiable edges instead.
What's Derek Carr's average Passing TDs all games?
Derek Carr averages 1.58 passing touchdowns per game against the standard 1.5 line, creating just a 0.1 touchdown differential. This minimal edge disappears when accounting for juice and represents statistical noise rather than predictive value.
How reliable is this trend?
There is no optimal time to bet Derek Carr's passing touchdown props based on available data. The consistent 50% hit rate and negative ROI across all conditions suggest avoiding these bets entirely regardless of situation.