Demarcus Robinson has been an under bettor's dream, hitting the under in 70% of his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 24.8 yards versus a 22.7 average line, the Rams receiver consistently fails to reach his number. Strong lean under on Robinson receiving yards props.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's 3-7 over/under record tells a story of market overvaluation and inconsistent usage within the Rams' offense. While his 24.8-yard average slightly exceeds the typical 22.7 line, this modest 2.1-yard edge gets wiped out by the frequency of complete duds. The 70% under rate suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Robinson's reduced role as the season progressed. His recent two-game over streak follows a devastating seven-game under run, indicating volatility rather than sustainable production. The Rams' passing game has increasingly focused on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua when healthy, relegating Robinson to a boom-or-bust role that rarely sustains consistent yardage totals. Robinson's profile fits the classic trap of a receiver whose occasional big games inflate his season averages while masking frequent disappointing outings. The market appears slow to recognize his diminished target share, creating persistent value on the under. His receiving yards props have become a reliable fade, particularly when the line sits above his recent median performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 70% under rate over 10 games represents clear market inefficiency, with oddsmakers failing to adjust for his inconsistent role. The -42.7% ROI on overs speaks volumes about his reliability issues. Target under bets when his line exceeds 25 yards, as he's struggled to maintain consistent production despite occasional spike games. Main risk is a potential target share increase if other Rams receivers face injury.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 18.5 | 74.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 22.5 | 23.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 0.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 15.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 26.5 | 19.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 30.5 | 23.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 25.5 | 94.0 | +68.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Demarcus Robinson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Robinson has gone over his receiving yards prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate), going under 7 times. His average of 24.8 yards beats the typical 22.7 line by only 2.1 yards, showing frequent shortfalls despite decent overall numbers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Robinson's receiving yards props. His 70% under rate and -42.7% ROI on overs create clear value on the under side. The market hasn't adjusted to his inconsistent usage in the Rams' offense.
What's Demarcus Robinson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Robinson averages 24.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 22.7 yards. While he beats the line by 2.1 yards on average, he fails to reach his number 70% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 25 yards, particularly in games where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy. His reduced target share makes higher lines especially vulnerable to missing.