Deebo Samuel's receiving yards props present a perfectly balanced market with a 15-15 over/under record across 30 games. While Samuel averages 54.3 yards against a 51.2 line, the negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient pricing. This is a PASS situation where the market has Samuel properly calibrated.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably efficient market for Deebo Samuel receiving yards props. His 50.0% over rate across 30 games indicates sportsbooks have found the sweet spot in their pricing model. Samuel's 3.1-yard average edge over the line appears meaningful, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides tells the real story—juice is eating profits regardless of direction. This efficiency stems from Samuel's dual-threat nature as both receiver and rusher, creating predictable usage patterns that oddsmakers can model accurately. His role in Kyle Shanahan's offense provides consistent target volume, but also caps his ceiling when the 49ers deploy him in the backfield or lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests Samuel's production remains steady across different game situations, eliminating potential edges from matchup-based betting. The recent streak patterns—longest over streak of 4 games, longest under streak of 5—show natural variance without exploitable tendencies. Samuel's current one-game under streak holds no predictive value. The market's precision here reflects Samuel's established role and the 49ers' consistent offensive identity, making this prop more suitable for DFS correlation plays than straight betting.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. The perfectly balanced 15-15 record combined with negative ROI on both sides screams efficient market pricing. While Samuel beats his line by 3.1 yards on average, the -4.5% ROI indicates the juice overwhelms any edge. Without situational splits or recent form trends to exploit, this prop offers no sustainable advantage. Save your bankroll for less efficient markets.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 47.5 | 5.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 42.5 | 96.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 49.5 | 16.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 44.5 | 22.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 39.5 | 20.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 41.5 | 21.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 60.5 | 22.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 57.5 | 62.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 54.5 | 71.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 56.5 | 102.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 55.5 | 11.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 55.5 | 110.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 47.5 | 54.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 58.5 | 33.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 51.5 | 89.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deebo Samuel's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Deebo Samuel's receiving yards prop record stands at exactly 15-15 across 30 games, representing a perfect 50.0% over rate. This balanced split indicates exceptionally efficient market pricing with no directional edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards all games?
Neither over nor under offers value on Deebo Samuel's receiving yards props. The -4.5% ROI on both sides, despite Samuel averaging 3.1 yards above his line, makes this a clear pass situation.
What's Deebo Samuel's average Receiving Yards all games?
Deebo Samuel averages 54.3 receiving yards per game against an average line of 51.2 yards. While he beats the line by 3.1 yards on average, negative ROI indicates the edge is insufficient.
How reliable is this trend?
There is no optimal time to bet Deebo Samuel's receiving yards props based on available data. The lack of situational splits and consistent performance across all game types eliminates timing advantages.