DeAndre Hopkins has cleared his receptions line in 6 of his last 10 games with Kansas City, generating a solid 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI. Despite averaging slightly below the typical 3.3 line at 3.0 receptions per game, the overs have been profitable. This creates a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate for Hopkins receptions props reveals a market inefficiency worth exploiting. While his 3.0 average sits 0.3 receptions below the standard line, the consistent profitability of overs suggests books are undervaluing his floor in Kansas City's offense. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sustainable value, particularly when considering Hopkins' role as a reliable target for Mahomes in crucial situations. The recent 5-game over streak demonstrates his ability to exceed expectations when game flow demands it. However, the -0.3 differential warns against blind backing, as Hopkins' reduced snap share compared to his prime years creates inherent volatility. The key lies in recognizing that Kansas City's playoff-caliber offense generates enough passing volume to lift Hopkins above modest projections, especially in competitive games where his veteran presence becomes invaluable. The 3-game under streak earlier in the sample shows he can disappoint when game script favors the ground game or other receivers dominate targets. Still, the overall trend suggests books consistently underestimate his involvement in high-leverage moments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hopkins' 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate consistent market undervaluation of his role in Kansas City's passing attack. Target overs when the Chiefs face competitive opponents likely to generate passing volume, as Hopkins thrives in clutch situations. The main risk is game scripts that heavily favor running or target distribution that heavily skews toward other receivers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeAndre Hopkins's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Hopkins has gone over his receptions line in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate) while averaging 3.0 receptions per game. The overs have generated a +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for unders, showing consistent profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeAndre Hopkins Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Hopkins receptions props. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate books consistently undervalue his role. Target competitive games where Kansas City will need to throw frequently, as Hopkins delivers in clutch situations.
What's DeAndre Hopkins's average Receptions last 10 games?
Hopkins is averaging 3.0 receptions over his last 10 games, which sits 0.3 below the typical 3.3 line. Despite this negative differential, overs have still been profitable due to consistent outperformance when it matters most.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hopkins receptions overs in competitive games where Kansas City faces quality opponents likely to generate passing volume. His veteran presence becomes most valuable in high-leverage situations where the Chiefs need reliable hands in crucial moments.