DeAndre Hopkins has hit the over on his receiving yards prop just 42.1% of the time in home games, going 8-11-0 with a brutal -19.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging only 1.7 yards above his typical line, the under has delivered consistent +10.5% returns. Lean under on Hopkins receiving yards props at Arrowhead.
Expert Analysis
Hopkins' home struggles reflect Kansas City's offensive philosophy more than individual decline. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs often build early leads through their explosive passing attack to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's replacement targets, then shift to ball control with their ground game. Hopkins has become more of a possession receiver in this system, handling intermediate routes and red zone targets rather than the deep shots that inflate yardage totals. The 47.89 average versus a 46.24 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role in Andy Reid's offense. The current four-game under streak aligns with Kansas City's recent emphasis on getting multiple receivers involved rather than feeding one primary target. Home games also eliminate the potential shootout scenarios that typically drive Hopkins' bigger yardage performances. The -19.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the +10.5% under return demonstrates sustainable value. Reid's tendency to pull starters early in blowout home wins further caps Hopkins' ceiling, making the under the mathematically superior play in this specific situation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hopkins' 42.1% over rate at home reflects Kansas City's ball-control approach after building leads at Arrowhead Stadium. The +10.5% ROI on unders shows consistent value, especially during the current four-game under streak. Target this when Hopkins' line sits above 45 yards and the Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal. Main risk is a potential shootout against high-powered offenses that force Kansas City to keep throwing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 11.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 38.5 | 37.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 32.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 90.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 49.5 | 56.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 44.5 | 86.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 41.5 | 54.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 28.5 | 73.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 31.5 | 9.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 63.5 | 46.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 59.5 | 20.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 21.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 53.5 | 75.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 55.5 | 49.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeAndre Hopkins's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Hopkins has gone 8-11-0 on receiving yards overs in home games, hitting just 42.1% of the time. This translates to a -19.6% ROI for over bettors, while under backers have enjoyed a profitable +10.5% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Hopkins receiving yards in home games. The 8-11-0 record and +10.5% ROI on unders shows consistent value, especially with his current four-game under streak and Kansas City's ball-control approach at Arrowhead Stadium.
What's DeAndre Hopkins's average Receiving Yards home games?
Hopkins averages 47.89 receiving yards in home games against a typical line of 46.24 yards. While he beats the line by 1.7 yards on average, he fails to hit the over 57.9% of the time, creating value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hopkins under bets when Kansas City is favored by 4+ points at home and his line exceeds 45 yards. These conditions maximize the Chiefs' likelihood of building early leads and shifting to ground control, limiting Hopkins' upside potential.