Dawson Knox has hit exactly 50% of his reception overs across his last 10 games, averaging 1.7 receptions against a 1.6 line for a minimal +0.1 edge. With negative ROI on both sides and a current 2-game under streak, this represents a coin-flip proposition with no clear betting advantage.
Expert Analysis
Knox's reception totals reveal a tight-line market where oddsmakers have accurately captured his usage patterns. The 1.7 average against a 1.6 line suggests minimal value, while the perfect 50% split indicates random variance rather than exploitable trends. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) reflects the vig eating into returns on what's essentially a break-even proposition. Knox's role as Buffalo's primary tight end provides consistent target share, but his reception totals fluctuate based on game script and red zone opportunities rather than predictable patterns. The current 2-game under streak follows a 3-game over streak, reinforcing the random nature of these outcomes. Without clear splits data showing performance advantages in specific situations, Knox's reception props appear efficiently priced. The tight clustering around the 1.6 line suggests books have identified his true expectation, making this more of a variance play than a skill-based bet. His usage remains steady enough to avoid dramatic swings, but not predictable enough to identify consistent edges.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Knox's reception props show no exploitable edge with perfect 50% splits and negative ROI on both sides. The minimal 0.1 average differential above the line isn't significant enough to overcome standard vig, especially given the current under streak. Wait for more favorable lines or clearer situational advantages before engaging with Knox reception totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dawson Knox's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Knox has gone 5-5 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a 1.7 average against typical 1.6 lines. This perfect split indicates an efficiently priced market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dawson Knox Receptions last 10 games?
Pass on Knox reception props currently. The 50-50 record with negative ROI on both sides offers no edge, and he's in a 2-game under streak after a 3-game over run.
What's Dawson Knox's average Receptions last 10 games?
Knox averages 1.7 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.6 line. This minimal 0.1 differential isn't significant enough to provide consistent betting value given standard market margins.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Knox reception props until clearer edges emerge. The current data shows random variance rather than exploitable patterns, making this a break-even proposition at best with standard vig working against you.