Dawson Knox has hit the under on his receptions prop at a 62.5% clip, going 6-10-0 over 16 games with a brutal -0.25 reception differential versus the betting line. The numbers strongly favor backing Knox unders, particularly given Buffalo's evolving offensive identity.
Expert Analysis
Knox's consistent underperformance against his receptions line reflects Buffalo's systematic shift toward a ground-heavy attack and the emergence of multiple receiving threats that fragment target share. The tight end has averaged just 1.56 receptions per game against a typical line of 1.81, creating a meaningful 0.25 reception gap that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role. This isn't merely variance—Knox's 37.5% over rate across 16 games represents a statistically significant sample that reveals structural changes in Buffalo's offensive deployment. The Bills have increasingly utilized 12 personnel packages that emphasize Knox's blocking responsibilities over his pass-catching duties, while the development of receivers like Khalil Shakir and the consistent target volume for Stefon Diggs and others have compressed Knox's ceiling. His current two-game under streak extends what has been a persistent trend rather than an anomaly. The -28.4% ROI on overs versus +19.3% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge, though bettors must remain vigilant for potential regression as the sample grows and books adjust their pricing models.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Knox's 62.5% under rate and -0.25 reception differential create a measurable edge that aligns with Buffalo's offensive evolution toward reduced tight end target share. The ideal conditions involve standard game scripts where Knox's blocking role takes precedence. The primary risk is positive regression catching up to what appears to be a sustainable trend based on role changes rather than random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dawson Knox's Receptions prop record all games?
Knox has gone 6-10-0 on his receptions props across 16 games, hitting the under 62.5% of the time. He's averaging 1.56 receptions per game against typical lines around 1.81, creating a -0.25 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dawson Knox Receptions all games?
Bet the under on Knox's receptions props. The 62.5% under rate, -0.25 reception differential, and +19.3% ROI on unders create a clear mathematical edge that reflects his reduced role in Buffalo's evolved offensive scheme.
What's Dawson Knox's average Receptions all games?
Knox averages 1.56 receptions per game, which sits 0.25 receptions below his typical betting line of 1.81. This consistent gap has produced profitable under betting opportunities across a meaningful 16-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Knox reception unders in standard game scripts where his blocking responsibilities take precedence. Avoid in obvious passing game scripts or when Buffalo faces significant deficits that could force increased target volume to all receivers.