Dawson Knox has delivered exceptional receiving yards value over his last 10 games, hitting overs at a 60% clip while averaging 22.4 yards against a 14.0 line for an impressive +8.4 differential. The +14.6% ROI on overs signals a genuine edge despite recent regression. Lean Over with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Knox's receiving yards surge reflects Buffalo's evolved offensive identity, where the tight end serves as Josh Allen's security blanket in high-leverage situations. The 22.4-yard average against a conservative 14.0 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Knox's expanded role in the Bills' playoff push. This isn't merely touchdown variance inflating numbers—Knox is seeing consistent target volume that translates to steady yardage production. The 60% over rate demonstrates sustainable value, particularly when considering Buffalo's pass-heavy approach in competitive games. However, the current two-game under streak warrants attention, as it could signal defensive adjustments or game script variations. Knox's production heavily correlates with Buffalo's offensive pace and Allen's willingness to check down under pressure. The 8.4-yard differential above market expectations indicates either persistent market inefficiency or a fundamental shift in Knox's usage that books haven't recognized. Given Buffalo's playoff aspirations and Knox's chemistry with Allen, this trend appears more structural than cyclical, though regression toward his historical averages remains a legitimate concern for sustained betting value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Knox's 8.4-yard differential above the line represents genuine value in Buffalo's evolved passing attack, where he's become Allen's primary safety valve. Target games where Buffalo faces competitive opponents requiring sustained passing volume. The main risk is natural regression to Knox's career norms and potential game scripts favoring Buffalo's rushing attack in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 15.5 | 7.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 38.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 22.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 24.5 | 56.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 40.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 40.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dawson Knox's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Knox has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) while going under 4 times. His 22.4-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 14.0 line, creating an 8.4-yard positive differential that has generated consistent betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dawson Knox Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Knox's receiving yards props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI demonstrate clear value, with his 22.4-yard average well above market expectations. Focus on competitive games where Buffalo will need sustained passing volume throughout four quarters.
What's Dawson Knox's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Knox has averaged 22.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to the typical 14.0 line, creating an impressive 8.4-yard positive differential. This substantial gap suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Buffalo's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Knox receiving yards overs in competitive games where Buffalo faces quality opponents requiring sustained offensive output. Avoid potential blowouts where the Bills might rely heavily on their ground game to control clock and preserve leads in the fourth quarter.