Dawson Knox's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% overs across 20 games with a devastating -23.6% ROI on the over side. The tight end averages 17.1 yards against a 15.7 line, but this modest edge masks severe inconsistency that favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Knox's receiving yards props present a classic case of market inefficiency driven by positional volatility and role limitations within Buffalo's offense. The Bills utilize Knox primarily as a red zone target and blocking specialist, creating feast-or-famine production that skews heavily toward lower yardage totals. His 40% over rate reflects the inherent unpredictability of tight end usage, where game script and defensive coverage dictate involvement more than raw talent. The +1.4 average differential above the line suggests books are pricing Knox conservatively, yet bettors continue to chase the occasional explosive game while ignoring his floor limitations. Knox's role becomes even more constrained when Buffalo establishes early leads, as they lean heavily on their rushing attack and shorter passing concepts. The two-game under streak aligns with his historical pattern of clustering low-yardage performances, particularly when facing defenses that can effectively bracket his routes or force Buffalo into quick-hitting passes. The -23.6% ROI on overs represents systematic market overvaluation of Knox's ceiling relative to his typical usage patterns, creating sustainable value on the under side despite the modest positive differential.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Knox's 40% over rate and brutal -23.6% ROI on overs reflect systematic overvaluation of his receiving ceiling in Buffalo's run-heavy, short-passing offense. Target unders when Buffalo faces competent defenses or enters as road favorites, where game script typically limits Knox's downfield opportunities. Primary risk is garbage time usage if Buffalo falls behind significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 15.5 | 7.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 38.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 22.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 24.5 | 56.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 40.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 9.5 | 40.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 22.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dawson Knox's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Knox has gone 8-12-0 on receiving yards overs across 20 games, hitting just 40% with a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors and profitable +14.6% returns on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dawson Knox Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the under. Knox's 40% over rate and -23.6% ROI on overs reflect systematic market overvaluation. His role limitations in Buffalo's offense create consistent value on under bets.
What's Dawson Knox's average Receiving Yards all games?
Knox averages 17.1 receiving yards against a typical 15.7 line, creating a +1.4 differential. However, this modest edge masks severe volatility that consistently favors under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Knox receiving yards unders when Buffalo faces strong defenses or enters as road favorites, where game script typically limits his downfield opportunities and emphasizes his blocking responsibilities.