Daniel Jones has hit the over in just 40% of his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 against passing yards lines despite averaging 207.0 yards versus a 200.0 baseline. The under trend shows strong value with +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Daniel Jones's passing yards struggles reflect a quarterback caught between systems and circumstances. His 207.0 yard average barely exceeds the typical 200.0 line, creating a deceptive margin that favors under bettors. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the real story—books are pricing Jones based on his ceiling rather than his consistent floor. His current two-game under streak aligns with a pattern of inconsistency that has defined his recent play. The 40% over rate suggests Jones lacks the weekly floor that separates reliable fantasy quarterbacks from boom-bust options. Without explosive offensive weapons or a system designed to maximize his arm talent, Jones consistently falls short of inflated expectations. The Vikings' acquisition of Jones mid-season likely disrupted his rhythm and familiarity with receivers, contributing to the under-heavy results. His longest over streak of just three games indicates he rarely sustains hot stretches, while the modest +7.0 differential above the line creates minimal cushion for variance. The market appears to overvalue Jones's occasional big games while underweighting his tendency toward conservative, game-manager performances that keep him below betting totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jones's 40% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a clear edge for under bettors, particularly when his line sits around 200 yards. The ideal spot comes when books inflate his number based on matchup or recent volume, as his 207.0 average provides little margin for error. The main risk is a potential shootout scenario where Minnesota falls behind early and abandons their ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 198.5 | 190.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 201.5 | 174.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 187.5 | 264.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 207.5 | 99.0 | -108.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 212.5 | 205.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 182.5 | 257.0 | +74.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 201.5 | 281.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 182.5 | 236.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 213.5 | 178.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 212.5 | 186.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Daniel Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daniel Jones's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Daniel Jones has gone 4-6-0 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his props. He's averaging 207.0 yards against a typical 200.0 line, with under bets showing +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daniel Jones Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Daniel Jones passing yards props. His 40% over rate and negative ROI on overs create clear value for under bettors, especially with his modest 207.0 yard average providing little cushion above standard lines.
What's Daniel Jones's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Daniel Jones averages 207.0 passing yards over his last 10 games, just 7.0 yards above the typical 200.0 line. This narrow margin explains his poor 40% over rate and creates consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniel Jones passing yards unders when his line reaches 210+ yards or in games where Minnesota projects to control pace. Avoid in clear shootout spots where the Vikings will abandon their ground game early.