Daniel Jones has been a touchdown desert over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 0.8 passing TDs against a 1.1 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI, making it the clear value play. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Daniel Jones's touchdown struggles reflect a quarterback caught between systems and circumstances. His 0.8 average against a 1.1 line represents a meaningful 27% shortfall that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished red zone efficiency. The 4-6 over/under record tells only part of the story – the -23.6% ROI on overs indicates these weren't close calls but decisive unders. Jones has shown stretches of competence, evidenced by his longest over streak of 3 games, but the consistency simply isn't there. His longest under streak matching at 3 games suggests this isn't just random variance but a fundamental shift in his offensive role or effectiveness. The current 1-game under streak feels like the beginning of another cold spell rather than an anomaly. What makes this trend particularly reliable is that it spans nearly a full year of action, capturing different game scripts, opponents, and situations. Jones appears to be a quarterback who can move the ball but struggles to finish drives, making him a prime candidate for consistent under performance on touchdown props until proven otherwise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Daniel Jones's 0.8 touchdown average creates a significant edge against the typical 1.1 line, especially given the sustained nature of this trend across 10 games. Target this play in neutral game scripts where Minnesota won't be forced into heavy passing situations. The main risk is a potential breakout game that could shift market perception, but the consistency of his struggles suggests continued value on the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daniel Jones's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Daniel Jones has gone 4-6 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. He's averaging 0.8 passing TDs per game against typical lines around 1.1, creating a -0.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daniel Jones Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Daniel Jones passing touchdowns. His 0.8 average against 1.1 lines has produced 14.6% ROI on unders over 10 games. The trend is consistent and the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced touchdown production.
What's Daniel Jones's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Daniel Jones averages 0.8 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, significantly below the typical 1.1 line set by sportsbooks. This -0.3 differential represents a 27% shortfall from expectations, creating consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniel Jones touchdown unders in neutral game scripts when Minnesota isn't trailing heavily. Avoid when the Vikings are significant underdogs requiring aggressive passing. Best value comes on standard 1.0 or 1.5 lines in competitive matchups.