D'Andre Swift has been a consistent under performer, hitting the rushing yards over in just 3 of 10 games (30.0%) while averaging 50.5 yards against a 57.7 line average. The -7.2 yard differential and strong 33.6% ROI on unders signals a clear betting edge. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Swift's rushing yard struggles reflect Chicago's broader offensive dysfunction and his evolving role in the Bears' backfield. The 7.2-yard average shortfall isn't marginal variance—it represents a systematic gap between market expectations and on-field reality. Chicago's inconsistent offensive line play has limited Swift's explosive potential, while game script issues have often forced the Bears into pass-heavy situations when trailing. The Bears' tendency to fall behind early has compressed Swift's rushing opportunities, particularly in negative game scripts where his pass-catching skills become more valuable than his ground game. Swift's 30% over rate suggests books may be slow to adjust to his diminished rushing role, creating sustainable value on unders. The lack of a dominant rushing streak (longest over streak just 1 game) indicates this isn't a temporary slump but rather a reflection of Chicago's offensive limitations. Swift's talent remains evident, but the supporting cast and situational factors have consistently undermined his rushing production. Without significant schematic changes or improved offensive line play, this under trend appears likely to persist through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Swift's 30% over rate and -7.2 yard differential represent clear market inefficiency rather than temporary variance. The Bears' offensive struggles and Swift's reduced rushing role create favorable conditions for under bets. Primary risk lies in potential garbage-time carries or improved offensive line play, but Chicago's season-long consistency issues make this unlikely. Target unders when lines exceed 55 yards.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 45.5 | 65.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 58.5 | 53.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 20.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 49.5 | 79.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 56.5 | 38.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 47.5 | 39.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 30.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 71.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 73.5 | 59.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 67.5 | 51.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Swift has gone over his rushing yards prop just 3 times in 10 games (30.0% rate) with a 3-7-0 record. He's averaging 50.5 yards against a 57.7 average line, falling short by 7.2 yards per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Swift's rushing yards props. His 30% over rate and -7.2 yard differential show clear market inefficiency. The under bet offers 33.6% ROI compared to -42.7% on overs, making it a strong value play.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Swift averages 50.5 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 57.7 yards. This 7.2-yard shortfall represents consistent underperformance and creates betting value on under props when available.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Swift rushing yard unders when lines exceed 55 yards, especially against strong run defenses or in games where Chicago projects to trail early. Avoid betting when Swift faces weak run defenses or in potential blowout wins.