D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props in divisional games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games with a brutal -2.9 yard differential versus the betting line. The 21.5% ROI on unders reflects consistent market overvaluation in these heated rivalry matchups.
Expert Analysis
Swift's divisional struggles stem from the unique intensity and familiarity that defines NFC North battles. Averaging 53.73 rushing yards against lines set nearly three yards higher reveals how sportsbooks consistently overestimate his production in these defensive slugfests. The 4-7-0 over record isn't random variance—it reflects the reality that divisional games feature superior game-planning, emotional volatility that disrupts offensive rhythm, and defenses that have studied Swift's tendencies extensively. Chicago's offensive line struggles become magnified against familiar pass rushers who know exactly how to generate interior pressure. The longest under streak of four games demonstrates how these trends can persist when Swift faces the same defensive coordinators twice yearly. Most concerning for over bettors is Swift's inability to find consistent rushing lanes against defenses that have prioritized stopping him specifically. The -30.6% ROI on overs represents one of the worst betting investments in the prop market, while the corresponding 21.5% under ROI suggests this edge remains largely unexploited by the betting public who get seduced by Swift's talent rather than focusing on situational context.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Swift's divisional rushing yards props offer legitimate value on the under side, supported by an 11-game sample showing consistent underperformance versus market expectations. The ideal betting spot comes when lines exceed 55 yards, as Swift has repeatedly failed to reach these elevated numbers against familiar NFC North defenses. Primary risk involves potential positive game script if Chicago builds early leads, though their offensive inconsistency makes this scenario unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 45.5 | 65.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 20.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 49.5 | 79.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 47.5 | 39.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 30.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 71.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 64.5 | 92.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 52.5 | 39.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 56.5 | 43.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 61.5 | 57.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 66.5 | 56.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Swift's rushing yards prop record in divisional games stands at 4-7-0 over/under, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in the prop betting market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards divisional games?
Bet under on Swift's rushing yards in divisional games. The 21.5% ROI on unders versus -30.6% on overs, combined with his consistent 2.9-yard shortfall versus lines, makes this a clear value play.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Swift averages 53.73 rushing yards in divisional games compared to typical betting lines around 56.59 yards. This -2.9 yard differential consistently favors under bettors across his 11-game divisional sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Swift rushing yards unders when lines exceed 55 yards in divisional matchups. His struggles against familiar NFC North defenses become most pronounced when sportsbooks set elevated expectations based on his overall talent.