D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with a 58.8% hit rate and +12.3% ROI. His 14-20 over/under record across 34 games reveals consistent line inflation, though he averages 60.06 yards against 55.24 lines. The under trend shows strong profitability despite modest yardage overperformance.
Expert Analysis
Swift's rushing yards props reveal a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While he averages 60.06 yards against lines of 55.24—a seemingly positive 4.8-yard differential—the under has delivered consistent profits with a +12.3% ROI compared to a devastating -21.4% loss on overs. This paradox stems from line-setting inefficiencies that consistently overestimate Swift's ceiling while undervaluing his floor volatility. The 41.2% over rate across 34 games indicates sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted for Swift's role limitations and game script dependencies. His rushing production faces structural constraints from Chicago's pass-heavy approach and his own receiving workload, which often caps his ground attempts. The recent streak patterns—longest under streak of 5 games versus 4-game over streak—suggest the under trend has more sustainability. Swift's rushing yards props appear systematically overpriced, creating a profitable fade opportunity that persists because casual bettors gravitate toward the over on explosive players. The consistency of this edge across different game situations strengthens the case for continued under value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +12.3% ROI on unders combined with a 58.8% hit rate creates a sustainable edge despite Swift averaging slightly above his lines. The key driver is systematic line inflation that fails to account for his role constraints and game script vulnerabilities. Target unders when lines exceed 55 yards, as this amplifies the existing pricing inefficiency. Main risk is a potential role expansion or offensive philosophy shift that increases his rushing volume significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 45.5 | 65.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 58.5 | 53.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 20.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 49.5 | 79.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 56.5 | 38.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 47.5 | 39.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 30.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 71.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 73.5 | 59.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 67.5 | 51.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 61.5 | 129.0 | +67.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 50.5 | 91.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 53.5 | 73.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 36.5 | 93.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 56.5 | 20.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props show a 14-20 over/under record (41.2% overs) across 34 games from September 2023 to January 2025. The under has hit 58.8% of the time, generating a +12.3% ROI compared to -21.4% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props. The 58.8% under hit rate and +12.3% ROI demonstrate consistent profitability despite his slight yardage overperformance. Target lines above 55 yards for maximum edge exploitation in this systematically mispriced market.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Rushing Yards all games?
D'Andre Swift averages 60.06 rushing yards per game against average lines of 55.24 yards, creating a +4.8 yard differential. However, this modest overperformance masks significant volatility that makes unders more profitable despite the positive average differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target D'Andre Swift rushing yards unders when lines exceed 55 yards, as this amplifies existing pricing inefficiencies. The trend shows consistency across different situations, but focus on games where his receiving role might limit rushing attempts or game scripts favor passing approaches.