D'Andre Swift's receiving yards props in divisional games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 45.5% overs across 11 games with a -13.2% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 17.0 yards versus a 13.86 line, the under bet has generated positive 4.1% returns.
Expert Analysis
Swift's divisional receiving yards trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 17.0-yard average exceeds the typical 13.86 line by 3.1 yards, the over bet has been a consistent loser with negative 13.2% returns. This suggests oddsmakers have overcorrected for Swift's pass-catching ability in these matchups, creating inflated lines that fail to account for divisional game dynamics. NFC North opponents have likely adjusted their defensive schemes to limit Swift's receiving impact, forcing Chicago to rely more heavily on his rushing ability. The 5-6 over record masks the true betting story—when Swift goes under, he tends to go significantly under, as evidenced by the positive returns on under bets. His longest under streak of three games indicates that once divisional defenses key on his receiving role, the effect can persist across multiple matchups. The current streak of one under suggests we may be entering another cold stretch. Divisional familiarity breeds contempt for pass-catching backs, as defensive coordinators have extensive film and specific game plans to neutralize Swift's receiving threats.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The positive 4.1% ROI on unders combined with the 54.5% under hit rate creates a sustainable edge in divisional matchups. Swift's receiving role appears consistently overvalued by oddsmakers in these games, despite his solid 17.0-yard average. Target unders when the line exceeds 15 yards, as divisional defenses have shown they can effectively limit his pass-catching impact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 33.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 13.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 31.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 7.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 7.5 | 23.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Receiving Yards prop record divisional games?
Swift has gone 5-6 on receiving yards overs in divisional games, hitting just 45.5% of his overs across 11 matchups. The over bet has produced a negative 13.2% ROI despite his solid production averages.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards divisional games?
Bet under on Swift's receiving yards in divisional games. The under has generated positive 4.1% returns and hits 54.5% of the time, indicating consistent value despite his above-line averages.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Receiving Yards divisional games?
Swift averages 17.0 receiving yards in divisional games compared to his typical 13.86 line, creating a positive 3.1-yard differential. However, this production hasn't translated to profitable over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Swift receiving unders when facing divisional opponents with lines above 15 yards. These defenses have extensive preparation time and specific schemes to limit his pass-catching impact in familiar matchups.