D'Andre Swift's receiving yards props present a perfectly balanced 16-16 record with a 4.5-yard average edge over the line, but negative ROI on both sides signals market efficiency. Despite averaging 19.31 yards against 14.78 lines, the lack of consistent profit suggests a cautious approach.
Expert Analysis
Swift's receiving prop data reveals a fascinating paradox in sports betting markets. While his 19.31-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 14.78 line, creating what appears to be a substantial 4.5-yard edge, the perfectly split 16-16 over/under record tells a different story. This suggests books have been setting lines that account for Swift's receiving upside while maintaining balanced action. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) indicates the juice is eating into any theoretical edge, making this a break-even proposition at best. Swift's role as a pass-catching back in Chicago's offense creates natural variance - some games feature heavy checkdown usage while others see him primarily as a runner. The current one-game under streak following longer streaks in both directions (5 overs, 6 unders) demonstrates the volatility inherent in this prop. Without clear splits data showing advantageous spots, bettors are essentially gambling on game script rather than exploiting a systematic edge. The market appears to have Swift's receiving usage properly priced, making this more of a coin flip than a profitable angle.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Despite Swift averaging 4.5 yards above typical lines, the perfectly balanced record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficient market. The lack of clear situational edges or recent form data removes any analytical advantage. Wait for specific game conditions or line value rather than betting this as a systematic play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 33.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 13.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 6.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 31.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 20.5 | 28.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 15.5 | 47.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 8.5 | 72.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Swift's receiving yards props show a perfectly balanced 16-16 record over 32 games, hitting the over exactly 50.0% of the time. Despite this even split, he averages 19.31 receiving yards per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards all games?
Pass on Swift's receiving yards props. The perfectly balanced 16-16 record with negative ROI on both sides indicates an efficient market where the juice eliminates any edge from his higher averages.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Receiving Yards all games?
Swift averages 19.31 receiving yards per game against typical lines of 14.78 yards, creating a 4.5-yard positive differential. However, this apparent edge hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities historically.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Swift's receiving yards as a systematic play. Without clear situational splits showing advantageous spots, wait for specific game conditions like heavy passing scripts or favorable matchups against weak linebacker coverage.