Dameon Pierce has been a brutal over bet, hitting just 30% across his last 10 games while averaging 32.9 rushing yards against a 39.4 line. The -6.5 differential signals consistent line inflation, making unders the clear value play with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Pierce's rushing yard props reveal a classic case of market overvaluation driven by draft capital and preseason expectations rather than current reality. The Texans' offensive evolution under C.J. Stroud has fundamentally shifted away from ground-heavy schemes, leaving Pierce in a diminished role that oddsmakers have been slow to acknowledge. His 32.9 yard average represents a significant 16.5% shortfall from typical lines, suggesting books are still pricing him as a featured back rather than the complementary piece he's become. The consistency of this underperformance is particularly striking—Pierce hasn't just missed occasionally, he's systematically fallen short as Houston's passing attack has taken precedence. Three consecutive unders highlight how this trend has accelerated recently, likely reflecting improved game script awareness from the coaching staff. The lack of positive regression over 10 games indicates this isn't variance but structural change. Pierce's role appears permanently capped in an offense that prioritizes efficiency over volume, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize this market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and -6.5 average differential create clear value, but Pierce's talent means positive game scripts could still produce overs. Target unders when Houston faces competent offenses that force passing situations, but avoid when they're heavy favorites against weak run defenses where garbage time carries become likely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 3.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 39.5 | 9.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 27.5 | 41.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 27.5 | 14.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 52.5 | 46.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 57.5 | 34.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 51.5 | 66.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 49.5 | 81.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 45.5 | 31.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dameon Pierce's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Pierce has gone under in 7 of his last 10 games (30% over rate), producing a devastating -42.7% ROI for over bettors while unders have generated +33.6% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Pierce's rushing yards. The 70% under rate and -6.5 average differential from his line indicate systematic overvaluation, especially in Houston's pass-heavy offensive scheme.
What's Dameon Pierce's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Pierce averages 32.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 39.4 yards, creating a consistent 6.5-yard shortfall that savvy bettors can exploit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pierce unders when Houston faces quality offenses that force passing situations or when playing from behind. Avoid when they're heavy favorites against weak run defenses.