Dameon Pierce has been a consistent under performer, hitting the over in just 25% of his games with a -8.8 yard average differential. The Texans running back is currently on a three-game under streak, generating massive +43.2% ROI for under bettors. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Pierce's rushing yard props present one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL, with books consistently overvaluing his production. The 25% over rate across 12 games indicates systematic mispricing rather than random variance. Pierce's -8.8 yard differential suggests oddsmakers are anchoring to outdated expectations or inflating lines based on his draft pedigree and early career flashes. The Texans' offensive evolution under C.J. Stroud has shifted toward a pass-heavy attack, limiting Pierce's volume and creating negative game scripts where Houston abandons the run. His three-game under streak aligns with the broader trend of diminished rushing opportunities in a modernized offense. The +43.2% ROI on unders demonstrates sharp money has identified this edge, yet books haven't adequately adjusted. Pierce's physical limitations and the team's strategic pivot make this trend sustainable. The lack of recent over streaks longer than two games shows his ceiling remains capped, while his floor continues dropping as the Texans prioritize aerial attack development.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pierce's 25% over rate and -8.8 yard differential create a sustainable edge that books haven't corrected. Target unders when lines exceed 40 yards, especially in games where Houston projects to trail early. The main risk is a potential coaching change or injury to other backs that could force increased Pierce usage, but the current offensive philosophy strongly favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 3.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 39.5 | 9.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 27.5 | 41.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 27.5 | 14.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 52.5 | 46.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 57.5 | 34.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 51.5 | 66.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 49.5 | 81.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 45.5 | 31.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 55.5 | 31.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 38.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dameon Pierce's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Pierce has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 3 of 12 games (25%) with an average of 33.17 yards against a 42.0 line. He's averaging 8.8 yards below his prop lines consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Pierce's rushing yards props. His 25% over rate and -8.8 yard differential create a strong edge, especially when lines exceed 40 yards in pass-heavy game scripts.
What's Dameon Pierce's average Rushing Yards all games?
Pierce averages 33.17 rushing yards per game compared to his typical 42.0 prop line, creating an 8.8 yard negative differential that has generated +43.2% ROI for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pierce rushing yard unders when Houston is projected to trail early or face strong run defenses. His props are most vulnerable when lines exceed 40 yards in pass-heavy game environments.