Dalton Schultz's receptions props at home present a clear under opportunity, with just 35.3% overs across 17 games and a brutal -0.4 average differential below the typical 3.38 line. The Texans tight end is currently riding a five-game under streak, reinforcing this systematic home underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Schultz's home reception struggles stem from Houston's offensive philosophy shift when playing at NRG Stadium. The 3.0 average receptions at home represents a meaningful drop from what oddsmakers typically expect, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to this location-based pattern. The -32.6% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent disappointment for over bettors, while under backers have profited at a healthy 23.5% clip. This isn't random variance—seventeen games provide sufficient sample size to identify a genuine trend. The current five-game under streak, matching his season-long pattern, indicates the Texans utilize Schultz differently in familiar surroundings, possibly leaning more heavily on wide receivers or running backs in the red zone. Home game script tendencies, crowd noise affecting audibles, or simply comfort with alternative targets all contribute to Schultz seeing fewer looks per game. The consistency of this underperformance—hitting the under in nearly two-thirds of home contests—suggests a systematic rather than coincidental pattern that sharp bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schultz's home reception props offer legitimate value on the under, supported by a 64.7% hit rate and positive ROI over 17 games. The ideal spots are when his line sits at 3.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. Primary risk is Houston's offensive evolution or increased target share, but the five-game under streak suggests this pattern remains intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 10.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Schultz's Receptions prop record home games?
Schultz has gone under his receptions prop in 11 of 17 home games (64.7%), with overs hitting just 35.3% of the time. His average of 3.0 receptions at home consistently falls short of the typical 3.38 line set by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Schultz Receptions home games?
Bet the under on Schultz's home reception props. The 64.7% under rate and positive 23.5% ROI make this a profitable long-term play, especially when the line is set at 3.5 or higher receptions.
What's Dalton Schultz's average Receptions home games?
Schultz averages exactly 3.0 receptions in home games, which sits 0.4 catches below the typical line of 3.38. This consistent gap between performance and expectation creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schultz under props when Houston plays at home and his line is 3.5 or higher. Avoid during potential shootout games or when facing pass-funnel defenses that could force increased target volume to tight ends.