Dalton Schultz's reception props have been systematically overvalued, hitting the over in just 43.8% of games (14-18 record) while averaging 3.31 receptions against a 3.44 line. The under delivers a solid 7.4% ROI with consistent performance. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The market continues to overestimate Dalton Schultz's reception volume in Houston's evolving offensive system. His 3.31 average against a 3.44 line reveals a persistent 0.13-reception gap that translates to real betting value. The Texans' commitment to establishing Nico Collins and Tank Dell as primary targets has naturally compressed Schultz's target share, yet oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted. His 43.8% over rate across 32 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic mispricing. The longest under streak of five games demonstrates how quickly Schultz can disappear from the game plan when Houston's receivers stay healthy. While tight ends often see increased usage in red zone situations, Schultz's role has become increasingly situational rather than volume-driven. The -16.5% ROI on overs tells the complete story: bettors consistently lose money chasing reception totals that don't align with his actual usage patterns. Houston's offensive identity has shifted toward explosive plays downfield, leaving Schultz as more of a safety valve than a consistent target magnet.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 7.4% under ROI combined with his consistent underperformance against the line creates sustainable value. Target this bet when the line sits at 3.5 or higher, as Schultz rarely exceeds four receptions. The main risk is a potential injury to Houston's receiving corps that could artificially inflate his target share, but his current role suggests continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Schultz's Receptions prop record all games?
Dalton Schultz has gone under his receptions prop in 18 of 32 games (56.3% under rate) while hitting the over just 14 times. This 14-18-0 record shows consistent underperformance against market expectations with his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Schultz Receptions all games?
Bet the under on Schultz's receptions. His 43.8% over rate and positive 7.4% under ROI create clear value. The market consistently overvalues his reception volume in Houston's downfield-focused offensive system that limits underneath targets.
What's Dalton Schultz's average Receptions all games?
Schultz averages 3.31 receptions per game against an average line of 3.44, creating a -0.13 differential. This gap represents consistent value on under bets, as he regularly falls short of market expectations for his reception volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schultz reception unders when the line is set at 3.5 or higher, particularly when Houston's receivers are healthy. Avoid betting during weeks when Nico Collins or Tank Dell face injury concerns, as target redistribution could inflate his numbers.