Dalton Schultz has been a consistent under performer in home games, hitting the over just 44.4% of the time across 18 games with an 8-10 record. Despite averaging 39.0 receiving yards versus a 34.39 line, the -15.2% ROI on overs signals systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers in familiar territory.
Expert Analysis
The Schultz home receiving yards trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 39.0 yard average exceeds the typical 34.39 line by 4.6 yards, the 8-10 over/under record and brutal -15.2% ROI on overs tells the real story. This suggests oddsmakers consistently inflate his lines at NRG Stadium, perhaps overestimating the comfort factor of playing at home. The current four-game under streak reinforces this pattern, indicating Schultz struggles to consistently exceed elevated expectations in Houston. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence across different offensive coordinators and quarterback situations. The Texans' home offensive approach may inherently limit Schultz's ceiling, whether through increased running game emphasis with crowd support or defensive adjustments that neutralize his route-running advantages. The 6.1% ROI on unders provides a meaningful edge, especially when considering that tight end receiving props often carry softer lines than skill position players. However, regression risk exists given the positive yardage differential, and any significant offensive scheme changes could alter this dynamic quickly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.1% ROI on unders combined with the current four-game streak creates a favorable betting environment despite the positive yardage differential. Target unders when the line sits above 35 yards, as oddsmakers appear to systematically overvalue Schultz's home production. The main risk is offensive evolution under new coordinator Bobby Slowik potentially unlocking more consistent target volume in Houston's comfortable confines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 32.5 | 23.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 38.5 | 21.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 31.5 | 13.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 20.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 37.5 | 66.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 32.5 | 52.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 34.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 31.5 | 34.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 21.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 41.5 | 37.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 42.5 | 19.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 33.5 | 61.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 43.5 | 2.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 47.5 | 32.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 35.5 | 130.0 | +94.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Schultz's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Dalton Schultz has gone 8-10 on receiving yards overs in home games, hitting just 44.4% across 18 games. This poor over rate has generated a devastating -15.2% ROI for over bettors, while unders have produced a profitable 6.1% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Dalton Schultz receiving yards in home games. The 6.1% ROI on unders, combined with his current four-game under streak and systematic line inflation by oddsmakers, creates a clear edge favoring the under in Houston.
What's Dalton Schultz's average Receiving Yards home games?
Dalton Schultz averages 39.0 receiving yards in home games against a typical line of 34.39 yards. Despite this 4.6-yard positive differential, his 8-10 over/under record shows oddsmakers consistently overvalue his home production, creating under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dalton Schultz receiving yards unders when lines exceed 35 yards at home games. The current four-game under streak and systematic oddsmaker overvaluation create optimal conditions, especially early in the season before adjustments are made.