Dalton Schultz's receiving yards props in away games present a clear under bias, hitting just 43.8% overs across 16 games with a negative 16.5% ROI on overs versus positive 7.4% on unders. Despite averaging 34.94 yards against a 34.75 line, the under trend offers legitimate value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Dalton Schultz's road performance that contradicts surface-level expectations. While his 34.94-yard average barely exceeds the typical 34.75 line, the distribution heavily favors unders with a 9-7 record and superior ROI metrics. This suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing Schultz's consistency, creating systematic value on the under. The current four-game over streak represents potential regression territory, especially considering his longest under streak reached six games earlier in the sample. Road environments typically challenge tight ends through increased crowd noise affecting quarterback timing and communication, factors that particularly impact possession receivers like Schultz who rely on precise route-running. Houston's offensive philosophy may also shift on the road, potentially emphasizing running game control over intermediate passing targets. The negative ROI on overs indicates sharp money consistently finds value betting against inflated lines, while the positive under ROI suggests this edge persists across different game scripts and matchups. With limited split data available, the raw trend becomes more significant as it represents the cleanest available signal for Schultz's road receiving production patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 7.4% positive ROI on unders combined with just 43.8% over rate creates legitimate value despite the minimal average differential. Target this play when lines sit at 34.5 or higher, particularly after Schultz records consecutive overs as regression pressure mounts. Primary risk involves Houston's passing game script in potential shootouts, but the consistent under bias suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 38.5 | 63.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 33.5 | 45.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 27.5 | 61.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 29.5 | 33.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 42.5 | 21.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 37.5 | 28.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 31.5 | 27.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 11.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 32.5 | 16.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 44.5 | 42.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 33.5 | 58.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 50.5 | 71.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 35.5 | 5.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 65.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 32.5 | 9.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Schultz's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Dalton Schultz has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 7 of 16 away games (43.8% rate), with 9 unders producing a 7.4% positive ROI compared to -16.5% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards away games?
Bet under on Dalton Schultz receiving yards in away games. The 9-7 under record with positive 7.4% ROI creates clear value, especially when lines reach 34.5 yards or higher.
What's Dalton Schultz's average Receiving Yards away games?
Dalton Schultz averages 34.94 receiving yards in away games, just 0.19 yards above the typical 34.75 line. This minimal edge masks the strong under bias in actual results distribution.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schultz receiving yards unders after he records consecutive overs, particularly when away lines exceed 34.5 yards. Road games offer the most consistent edge with superior ROI metrics.