Dallas Goedert's reception props present a coin-flip scenario with a dead-even 5-5 over/under record across his last 10 games. The tight average of 3.8 receptions against a 3.9 line suggests precise market pricing, making this a low-edge situation that warrants caution.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably efficient market for Goedert's reception props, with his 3.8 average sitting just 0.1 receptions below the typical 3.9 line. This near-perfect alignment indicates oddsmakers have accurately captured his role in Philadelphia's offense. The even 5-5 split combined with negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) suggests the juice is eating into any potential edge. Goedert's current streak of one under follows his longest over streak of three games, indicating natural variance rather than a meaningful trend shift. The absence of significant splits data limits our ability to identify exploitable spots, though tight ends often see increased targets in negative game scripts or when trailing. The Eagles' offensive system under Jalen Hurts has consistently utilized Goedert as a reliable intermediate option, but his target share remains relatively stable regardless of game flow. Without clear situational advantages or recent form indicators pointing toward regression, this prop appears to be efficiently priced. The lack of a meaningful differential between his actual production and the betting line suggests books have dialed in his expected usage. Smart bettors should recognize when a market shows this level of accuracy and avoid forcing action on a prop that offers minimal theoretical edge.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence on forcing either side. The market has accurately priced Goedert's reception output, evidenced by the minimal 0.1 differential and even 5-5 record. Without clear situational edges or meaningful splits to exploit, this represents a coin-flip proposition where the vigorish eliminates any theoretical advantage. Wait for more favorable spots with clearer directional indicators.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Dallas Goedert has gone 5-5 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 3.8 receptions per game against typical lines around 3.9.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receptions last 10 games?
Pass on Dallas Goedert reception props currently. The even 5-5 record and minimal 0.1 differential show efficient market pricing with no clear edge on either side worth the juice.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receptions last 10 games?
Dallas Goedert averages 3.8 receptions over his last 10 games, sitting 0.1 below the typical 3.9 line, indicating remarkably accurate market pricing by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Dallas Goedert reception props until situational advantages emerge. Look for negative game scripts, key injuries to other pass-catchers, or weather conditions favoring short passing games.