Dallas Goedert's receiving yards props present a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record across his last 10 games, with minimal edge either direction. His 41.7-yard average barely exceeds the typical 40.5 line, generating negative ROI on both sides. This trend suggests a disciplined pass on most standard props.
Expert Analysis
Goedert's receiving production represents one of the most efficiently priced props in the tight end market, with his 41.7-yard average sitting just 1.2 yards above standard lines. The perfectly split 5-5 record indicates oddsmakers have accurately captured his range of outcomes, leaving little exploitable value. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) confirms the market's efficiency, suggesting juice is eating into any potential edge. What makes this particularly noteworthy is the consistency within that balance - Goedert hasn't shown dramatic swings that create obvious betting spots. His longest over streak reached just three games, while under streaks maxed at two, indicating neither momentum nor regression patterns emerge reliably. The current single-game under streak provides no meaningful directional bias. Without split data revealing specific matchup advantages or situational edges, Goedert's props appear to be priced with surgical precision. This level of market efficiency typically occurs with high-volume players whose usage patterns are well-established and predictable. For sharp bettors, this data screams 'avoid' unless external factors like injury reports, weather conditions, or dramatic game script changes create temporary mispricing opportunities that the base numbers don't capture.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and minimal 1.2-yard edge over standard lines indicate efficient pricing that leaves no sustainable advantage. Negative ROI on both sides confirms the juice is eliminating any perceived edge. Only consider action when external factors like injury news, extreme weather, or significant line movement create temporary mispricing opportunities beyond these base trends.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 49.5 | 27.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 40.5 | 85.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 36.5 | 56.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 35.5 | 47.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 42.5 | 35.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 48.5 | 19.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 30.5 | 61.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 25.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 37.5 | 0.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 54.5 | 62.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Dallas Goedert has gone 5-5 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, creating a perfectly balanced 50% hit rate. His props have averaged 41.7 yards against typical lines around 40.5 yards, showing minimal variance either direction.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Dallas Goedert receiving yards props based on current trends. The 5-5 record with negative ROI both ways indicates efficient pricing. Only bet when external factors like injuries or weather create line value beyond these base numbers.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Dallas Goedert has averaged 41.7 receiving yards over his last 10 games, just 1.2 yards above the typical 40.5 line. This minimal differential suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his expected production range with little exploitable edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when external factors create mispricing beyond base trends. Target props when key Eagles receivers are injured, extreme weather affects passing games, or line movement creates value. Avoid betting standard lines given the efficient pricing.