Dallas Goedert's receiving yards away from home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 13 games with a brutal -26.6% ROI on the over side. Despite averaging 48.3 yards versus a typical 41.5 line, the under delivers consistent value with +17.5% returns.
Expert Analysis
The Philadelphia offense operates differently on the road, and Goedert's production reflects this stark reality. While his 48.3-yard average suggests the line is conservative, the 5-8-0 over/under record reveals consistent market overvaluation of his road ceiling. The Eagles' away game script typically involves more conservative play-calling and increased reliance on the running game, limiting Goedert's target share in crucial scoring situations. His current three-game under streak aligns with Philadelphia's recent road struggles, where opposing defenses have successfully bracketed their primary receiving threats. The -26.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money consistently fades the public's overconfidence in Goedert's road production. Most telling is the persistence of this trend across different game scripts and opponents, suggesting systemic factors rather than random variance. The Eagles' road offensive efficiency drops significantly, creating fewer high-leverage passing situations where Goedert typically accumulates his biggest chunks. With Philadelphia's season winding down and potential rest considerations for key players, this under trend appears positioned to continue rather than regress.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.5% ROI advantage and 62% under rate create legitimate value, especially during Philadelphia's current three-game under streak. Target this prop when Goedert's line sits at 42+ yards, as the market consistently overvalues his road ceiling. Primary risk involves garbage time production if the Eagles fall behind early in away contests.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 42.5 | 35.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 48.5 | 19.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 25.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 54.5 | 62.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 170.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 40.5 | 30.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 30.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 42.5 | 36.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 39.5 | 42.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 37.5 | 117.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 37.5 | 41.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 40.5 | 0.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Dallas Goedert props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Dallas Goedert has gone 5-8-0 on receiving yards overs in away games, hitting just 38.5% with a devastating -26.6% ROI for over bettors across 13 road contests since September 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards away games?
Bet under on Dallas Goedert's receiving yards in away games. The 62% under rate and +17.5% ROI provide clear value, especially with his current three-game under streak continuing.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receiving Yards away games?
Dallas Goedert averages 48.3 receiving yards in away games versus a typical 41.5 line, creating a +6.8 differential that misleadingly suggests over value despite the poor over record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goedert receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 42 yards in away games, particularly during Philadelphia's current slump and when facing defenses that limit tight end production.