Dallas Goedert's receiving yards props present a subtle under edge with a 48.1% over rate across 27 games. While averaging 46.85 yards against a 40.72 line suggests value, the -8.1% ROI on overs reveals books have adjusted effectively, making selective under betting the preferred approach.
Expert Analysis
The surface-level numbers tell a deceptive story with Goedert's receiving yards props. His 46.85-yard average against a 40.72 baseline creates an appealing +6.1 differential, yet this masks the reality of negative expected value on overs. The -8.1% ROI on over bets indicates sportsbooks have successfully calibrated lines to account for Goedert's ceiling games, while the modest -1.0% under ROI suggests a more sustainable edge. Goedert's role as Philadelphia's primary tight end creates inherent volatility — he's game-script dependent and faces varying defensive attention based on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith's availability. The 48.1% over rate sits just below the break-even threshold, but more critically, the recent streak patterns show no dominant tendency with equal three-game streaks in both directions. This equilibrium suggests the market has found efficient pricing, making timing and situational factors paramount. The lack of meaningful splits data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but Goedert's fantasy-relevant floor combined with his ceiling limitations creates a prop environment where books maintain their edge on the popular over bets while offering occasional under value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The negative ROI on overs despite a favorable yardage differential reveals sharp line-setting that neutralizes the apparent edge. Under bets offer better long-term value at -1.0% ROI versus -8.1% on overs. Target games where Goedert faces elite tight end coverage or when Philadelphia's passing game is expected to be concentrated on their elite receivers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 49.5 | 27.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 40.5 | 85.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 36.5 | 56.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 35.5 | 47.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 42.5 | 35.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 48.5 | 19.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 30.5 | 61.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 25.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 37.5 | 0.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 54.5 | 62.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 170.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 43.5 | 38.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 39.5 | 31.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 42.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Dallas Goedert has gone over his receiving yards prop in 13 of 27 games (48.1%) since September 2023. He's averaging 46.85 yards per game against an average line of 40.72 yards, creating a +6.1 differential that hasn't translated to profitable over betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards all games?
Lean under on Dallas Goedert's receiving yards props. Despite his strong per-game average, over bets have produced a -8.1% ROI while unders show better value at -1.0% ROI. Target spots with tough matchups or concentrated passing games to other Eagles receivers.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receiving Yards all games?
Dallas Goedert averages 46.85 receiving yards per game across his 27-game sample, which is 6.1 yards above his average prop line of 40.72. However, this favorable differential hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to effective line adjustment by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dallas Goedert under bets when Philadelphia faces elite tight end coverage or when A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both healthy and expected to dominate targets. Avoid over bets in potential shootouts where his ceiling appeal creates inflated public betting despite poor ROI history.