Courtland Sutton has been a receiving yards goldmine, hitting the over in 21 of 31 games (67.7%) with a massive +8.4 yard differential above his typical line. The Broncos receiver averages 61.1 yards against a 52.73 baseline, generating elite +29.3% ROI for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Sutton's receiving yards dominance stems from Denver's offensive evolution and his role as the clear alpha receiver. The 67.7% over rate isn't fluky—it reflects consistent target volume in a system that's increasingly pass-heavy. His 61.1 yard average represents genuine offensive production, not variance-driven outliers. The +8.4 differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his floor, likely anchoring to his injury-plagued 2021 season rather than his current form. The sustainability looks strong given Denver's commitment to the passing game and Sutton's target share stability. However, the -38.4% under ROI shows how punishing this trend has been for contrarians. The current two-game over streak aligns with his seven-game peak, indicating momentum rather than regression pressure. Risk factors include potential game script dependencies and the possibility that books finally adjust lines upward. The lack of split data prevents identifying optimal spots, but the broad-based success across all game situations suggests this isn't matchup-dependent. Sutton's combination of target volume, red zone looks, and big-play ability creates multiple paths to covering inflated numbers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 67.7% hit rate and +29.3% ROI create a clear mathematical edge, but the lack of situational splits prevents identifying peak spots. Sutton's consistent target volume and Denver's pass-heavy approach support continued success, though books may eventually adjust lines higher. Best played when his number sits in the low-to-mid 50s range.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 64.5 | 75.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 82.5 | 98.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 66.5 | 55.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 62.5 | 50.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 71.5 | 32.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 64.5 | 102.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 59.5 | 97.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 78.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 45.5 | 70.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 49.5 | 122.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 42.5 | 100.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 46.5 | 53.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 47.5 | 32.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 43.5 | 60.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Courtland Sutton props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Courtland Sutton's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Sutton has hit the over in 21 of 31 games (67.7%) while going under just 10 times. His receiving yards props have been remarkably consistent, with only one push in the 31-game sample, making him a reliable over target.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the over on Sutton's receiving yards props. The 67.7% success rate and +29.3% ROI provide clear mathematical value. His consistent target volume and Denver's pass-heavy offense create multiple paths to covering his numbers regularly.
What's Courtland Sutton's average Receiving Yards all games?
Sutton averages 61.1 receiving yards compared to his typical 52.73 line, creating an +8.4 yard edge. This substantial differential indicates oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production floor and big-play potential in Denver's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Sutton overs when his line sits in the low-to-mid 50s range, matching his historical baseline. Without split data, focus on games where Denver projects for normal offensive volume rather than blowout scenarios.