Cooper Kupp's reception props at home present a strong under opportunity with just 38.5% overs across 13 games. His 5.0 home average consistently falls short of typical 6+ lines, generating +17.5% under ROI while overs bleed -26.6%. The data strongly favors betting under on Kupp's home reception props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Cooper Kupp's diminished home reception volume that defies conventional wisdom. Averaging exactly 5.0 receptions per home game while facing lines typically set around 6+, Kupp consistently underperforms expectations in Los Angeles. This isn't random variance—it's a systematic pattern spanning over a full season of data. The -1.0 differential between his actual production and betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced target share in the Rams' evolved offensive system. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency—Kupp has hit the under in 8 of 13 home games, including his current three-game under streak. The massive ROI gap (+17.5% under vs -26.6% over) indicates this isn't a marginal edge but a significant market inefficiency. Home games often feature different game scripts, potentially with the Rams controlling tempo or facing weaker opponents that don't require heavy passing volume. Kupp's role has clearly shifted from the target monster of his Triple Crown season, and the betting market appears slow to recognize this new reality in home environments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 38.5% over rate and consistent -1.0 differential create a profitable under opportunity on Cooper Kupp reception props at home. Target lines of 5.5+ for maximum value, especially when the Rams are favored and likely to control game flow. Primary risk is a potential target spike if other receivers are injured, but the sample size suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 1.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 2.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receptions prop record home games?
Cooper Kupp has gone under his receptions prop in 8 of 13 home games (61.5% under rate) with only 5 overs (38.5%). His under bets have generated +17.5% ROI while overs have lost -26.6%, showing a clear directional edge toward betting under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receptions home games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp's receptions at home games. The data strongly supports this with 61.5% under rate and profitable +17.5% ROI. Target lines of 5.5+ for best value, especially when the Rams are favored.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receptions home games?
Cooper Kupp averages exactly 5.0 receptions per home game, which runs a full reception below typical betting lines around 6+. This -1.0 differential creates consistent value on under bets across his 13-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Cooper Kupp under receptions when the Rams play at home, particularly on lines of 5.5+. The edge is strongest when LA is favored, suggesting controlled game scripts that limit his target volume compared to road games.