Cooper Kupp's receiving yards have consistently fallen short of expectations over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 9.5 yards below his typical line. This 4-6-0 record represents a clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Cooper Kupp's current production ceiling. Averaging just 49.8 receiving yards against lines typically set around 59.3 reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and on-field reality. This isn't a small sample fluke—we're looking at 10 games of consistent underperformance that has generated a robust 14.6% ROI for under bettors. The Rams' offensive struggles have clearly impacted Kupp's target share and efficiency, yet oddsmakers continue setting lines that reflect his peak production rather than current form. What makes this trend particularly exploitable is the persistence factor. Kupp has endured a four-game under streak within this sample, suggesting systemic issues rather than random variance. The longest over streak reached just two games, indicating that even his better performances haven't sustained the elevated production levels the market expects. This pattern reflects a receiver dealing with either lingering health concerns, scheme changes, or team-wide offensive limitations that haven't been fully priced into the lines. The -23.6% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the market's overvaluation, while the consistent underperformance suggests this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Cooper Kupp's 40% over rate and 9.5-yard average deficit create a clear edge for under bettors, particularly when his line sits above 55 yards. The four-game under streak within this sample demonstrates sustained limitations in the Rams' passing attack that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. Primary risk involves potential positive regression if Los Angeles makes offensive adjustments, but the consistent underperformance suggests systemic issues rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 37.5 | 61.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 29.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 58.5 | 24.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 63.5 | 0.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 92.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 70.5 | 17.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 64.5 | 60.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 65.5 | 106.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 67.5 | 80.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Cooper Kupp has gone over his receiving yards prop just 4 times in his last 10 games (40% rate), going under 6 times. He's averaging 49.8 yards per game against typical lines around 59.3 yards, creating a consistent 9.5-yard deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Cooper Kupp receiving yards. His 40% over rate and 14.6% under ROI over 10 games creates a clear mathematical edge. The market hasn't adjusted to his current production limitations within the Rams' struggling offense.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Cooper Kupp is averaging 49.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which is 9.5 yards below his typical line of 59.3. This significant deficit represents consistent underperformance that under bettors have profitably exploited at a 14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 55 yards, especially following the Rams' offensive struggles. His four-game under streak and consistent deficit suggest the best opportunities come when oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to current form.