Cooper Kupp's receiving yards props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 13 games with a -3.4 yard average differential. The Rams receiver consistently falls short of inflated home lines, generating +17.5% ROI on unders versus -26.6% on overs.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic market inefficiency in Cooper Kupp's home receiving yards props, where oddsmakers appear to overvalue his production at SoFi Stadium. Kupp's 65.31-yard home average consistently trails his prop lines by 3.4 yards, suggesting books inflate numbers based on perceived home-field advantages that don't materialize for this specific player-situation combination. This trend likely persists due to public perception bias—casual bettors naturally gravitate toward star receivers at home, creating artificial line inflation. The Rams' offensive inconsistencies at home, whether due to conservative game scripts with leads or increased defensive attention on Kupp in familiar surroundings, contribute to this underperformance. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern rather than signaling imminent regression. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this trend across different game contexts, suggesting structural factors rather than random variance. The 26.6% negative ROI on overs represents significant long-term value destruction, while under bettors have profited consistently. Without major offensive scheme changes or personnel additions that would fundamentally alter Kupp's target distribution at home, this trend shows strong persistence indicators heading into future home contests.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Cooper Kupp's home receiving yards props offer sustainable value on the under, supported by a 61.5% hit rate and positive ROI. The market consistently overvalues his home production by 3.4 yards per game. Target unders when lines exceed 68 yards, particularly in divisional games where defensive familiarity limits big plays. Main risk is a potential offensive resurgence or increased target share that could shift this dynamic.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 29.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 92.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 64.5 | 60.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 67.5 | 80.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 51.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 73.5 | 52.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 111.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 54.5 | 39.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 81.5 | 11.0 | -70.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 92.5 | 29.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 88.5 | 148.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 63.5 | 118.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Cooper Kupp's receiving yards props at home show a 5-8-0 over/under record (38.5% overs) across 13 games. He averages 65.31 receiving yards at home compared to an average line of 68.73 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp's receiving yards at home games. The data shows 61.5% under success rate with +17.5% ROI, while overs lose -26.6%. He consistently falls 3.4 yards short of his home lines.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receiving Yards home games?
Cooper Kupp averages 65.31 receiving yards in home games, which is 3.4 yards below his average prop line of 68.73. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations creates value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp receiving yards unders at home when lines exceed 68 yards, especially in divisional matchups. Avoid after multiple consecutive unders hit, as books may adjust lines lower, reducing edge.