Cooper Kupp has been a consistent under performer in conference games, hitting the over just 31.6% of the time across 19 games. With an average of 55.37 yards against lines averaging 68.13, he's falling short by nearly 13 yards per game. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Cooper Kupp's struggles in conference matchups, where he's averaging 12.8 yards below his betting lines consistently. This isn't a small sample aberration—19 games provide substantial data showing Kupp faces heightened defensive focus from familiar NFC West opponents who've had multiple opportunities to study his tendencies. Conference games typically feature more conservative game plans and tighter coverage schemes, as divisional rivals prioritize limiting explosive plays from elite receivers like Kupp. The -39.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his production in these spots, while the +30.6% under ROI shows the profitability of fading the public perception. His recent five-game under streak before the current one-game over run reinforces this pattern. The fact that his longest over streak spans just two games while his longest under streak reached five games illustrates the systematic nature of this underperformance. Kupp's conference game struggles likely stem from defensive coordinators having extensive film study and the luxury of game-planning specifically around neutralizing the Rams' primary receiving threat, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 31.6% over rate and 12.8-yard average deficit create a compelling case for targeting unders on Cooper Kupp's receiving yards in conference games. The ideal spot comes when lines sit above 65 yards, as his 55.37 average suggests consistent value. The main risk involves potential positive regression, but the systematic nature of conference game challenges makes this trend more sustainable than random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 37.5 | 61.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 29.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 63.5 | 0.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 70.5 | 17.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 64.5 | 60.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 66.5 | 104.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 51.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 85.5 | 37.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 110.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 69.5 | 27.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 73.5 | 52.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 111.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 68.5 | 18.0 | -50.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 81.5 | 11.0 | -70.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Cooper Kupp props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Cooper Kupp has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 6 of 19 conference games (31.6% rate) since October 2023. His record shows 6 overs, 13 unders, with no pushes, demonstrating consistent underperformance against conference opponents.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp's receiving yards in conference games. The data strongly supports this with a 31.6% over rate and 12.8-yard average deficit. Under bets have generated +30.6% ROI while overs lose -39.7%.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Cooper Kupp averages 55.37 receiving yards in conference games against betting lines averaging 68.13 yards. This creates a significant 12.8-yard gap, showing he consistently falls short of market expectations in divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp under bets when his receiving yards line exceeds 65 yards in conference games. His 55.37 average provides the best value at higher numbers, especially against NFC West opponents with extensive preparation time.