Cole Kmet's reception totals show modest upside with a 50% over rate and 2.9 average versus 2.7 lines over his last 10 games. The +0.2 differential suggests slight market undervaluation, though negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient pricing. Lean over in favorable game scripts.
Expert Analysis
Cole Kmet's reception data reveals a tight market with minimal edges, as evidenced by the symmetrical -4.5% ROI on both sides. The 2.9 average against 2.7 lines creates a modest 0.2 reception cushion, but this small sample variance hardly constitutes a sustainable edge. Kmet's role as Chicago's primary tight end provides a decent floor, typically seeing 3-5 targets per game in standard offensive packages. However, the Bears' inconsistent passing attack and frequent negative game scripts limit his ceiling considerably. The alternating streak pattern—longest over streak of just 2 games followed by 3-game under runs—suggests his usage fluctuates significantly based on game flow and opponent defensive alignments. Without additional context about opponent TE defense rankings or Chicago's red zone tendencies, this appears to be a relatively efficient market where books have properly calibrated his lines. The current 1-game over streak provides minimal predictive value given the short pattern history. Kmet's reception totals likely correlate strongly with Chicago's trailing scenarios and third-down conversion rates, making game script analysis crucial for identifying spots where his target share increases meaningfully above his season baseline.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The +0.2 average differential and 50% over rate suggest marginal value on overs, but the negative ROI indicates books are pricing efficiently. Target overs when Chicago projects to trail early or face pass-funnel defenses that force higher target volumes. The main risk is Chicago's ground-heavy approach in competitive games limiting Kmet's opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Kmet's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Cole Kmet has gone 5-5 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with an average of 2.9 receptions versus typical lines around 2.7, creating a modest +0.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Kmet Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Cole Kmet receptions with low confidence. The +0.2 average edge and 50% hit rate suggest marginal value, but target spots where Chicago projects to trail and throw more frequently.
What's Cole Kmet's average Receptions last 10 games?
Cole Kmet averages 2.9 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 2.7, creating a +0.2 differential that suggests books may be slightly undervaluing his floor.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cole Kmet reception overs when Chicago faces strong run defenses or projects to trail early, forcing higher passing volume. Avoid in games where the Bears likely control clock with ground game.