C.J. Stroud's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting at a 60% clip with a massive +12.2 yards per game differential above the typical 11.1 line. The Houston quarterback has averaged 23.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games, generating a healthy +14.6% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
The 12.2-yard differential between Stroud's actual production and his rushing lines reveals a persistent market inefficiency. Books appear to be setting conservative rushing totals for the second-year quarterback, likely viewing him as a traditional pocket passer despite evidence suggesting otherwise. Stroud's 23.3 yards per game average indicates he's more mobile than oddsmakers initially credited, whether through designed runs, scrambles under pressure, or red zone quarterback sneaks. The consistency is notable – while we lack specific split data, the 60% over rate across 10 games suggests this isn't just variance from a few explosive performances. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates real betting value, though the -23.6% under ROI shows the market has been slow to adjust. With Stroud currently riding a two-game over streak, books may begin tightening these lines. However, the sample size suggests this represents a genuine skill or scheme element rather than temporary hot streak. The key question becomes whether this 23+ yard average reflects sustainable rushing production or if regression toward more typical quarterback rushing numbers is imminent.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 12.2-yard differential and 60% hit rate indicate genuine value on Stroud rushing overs, particularly when lines remain in the 10-12 yard range. Target games where Houston faces pressure or red zone situations that could force designed runs. Main risk is books catching up and inflating lines, plus small sample size concerns despite the strong trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 14.5 | 42.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 42.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 9.5 | 26.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 59.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is C.J. Stroud's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
C.J. Stroud has hit the over on his rushing yards props in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), with a 6-4-0 over/under record. His overs have generated a +14.6% ROI while unders have lost -23.6% during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on C.J. Stroud rushing yards props. The 12.2-yard average differential above typical lines and 60% hit rate show consistent value. Target lines around 10-12 yards where books haven't fully adjusted to his mobility.
What's C.J. Stroud's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
C.J. Stroud has averaged 23.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games, significantly outpacing the typical 11.1-yard line by 12.2 yards per game. This massive differential indicates books are undervaluing his ground mobility.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come when lines remain in the 10-12 yard range, showing books haven't adjusted. Target games with potential pressure situations or red zone scenarios that could generate designed quarterback runs or scrambles.