C.J. Stroud's rushing yards props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 43.8% of overs across 16 games with a -16.5% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 11.56 yards versus a 9.69 line, the consistent under performance makes this a lean under play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about C.J. Stroud's rushing limitations in home settings. While his 11.56-yard average suggests modest mobility, the 43.8% over rate reveals books are consistently overvaluing his ground production at NRG Stadium. This disconnect likely stems from Stroud's pocket-first mentality and the Texans' offensive philosophy prioritizing quick passing concepts over designed quarterback runs. The -16.5% ROI on overs indicates bettors are falling into the trap of expecting more scrambling from a young quarterback, but Stroud's game is built around arm talent, not legs. His rushing production appears more situational than systematic, with designed runs limited and scrambles typically coming only when protection breaks down. The home environment may actually work against rushing production, as familiar surroundings and crowd support could lead to more aggressive downfield passing attempts rather than conservative scrambles. The +7.4% under ROI, while modest, demonstrates consistent value on the under side. With books seemingly slow to adjust their rushing lines downward for Stroud's home games, this creates a sustainable edge for sharp bettors willing to fade the public's overestimation of quarterback mobility.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 43.8% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates a clear edge favoring the under on C.J. Stroud rushing yards props at home. Target this play when lines sit above 10 yards, as books continue overvaluing his scrambling ability in familiar NRG Stadium settings. The main risk is a blowout game forcing garbage-time scrambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 42.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 8.5 | 18.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | -10.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 27.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 17.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 1.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 47.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 10.5 | -1.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 2.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is C.J. Stroud's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
C.J. Stroud's rushing yards props at home games show a 7-9-0 over/under record (43.8% overs) across 16 games from October 2023 to January 2025, with overs producing a negative 16.5% ROI for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on C.J. Stroud's rushing yards at home games. The 43.8% over rate and negative ROI on overs create clear value on the under side, especially when lines exceed 10 yards.
What's C.J. Stroud's average Rushing Yards home games?
C.J. Stroud averages 11.56 rushing yards in home games compared to an average line of 9.69 yards, creating a +1.9 differential. However, this average is misleading given the poor over performance rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target C.J. Stroud rushing unders at home when lines are set above 10 yards and the Texans are favored, as comfortable game scripts reduce scrambling necessity and emphasize his pocket passing strengths.