Chris Olave's reception props show a slight over bias at 52.2% (12-11-0) across 23 games, but the numbers reveal a more nuanced story. His 4.78 average sits 0.3 receptions below the typical 5.07 line, creating a small but consistent edge for under bettors despite the record suggesting otherwise.
Expert Analysis
The disconnect between Olave's over record and actual performance creates an intriguing betting opportunity. While 52.2% overs suggests books are pricing him correctly, his consistent underperformance relative to the line (-0.3 differential) indicates the market may be overvaluing his reception floor. The -8.7% ROI on unders compared to -0.4% on overs reveals where the real value lies, though both show negative returns. Olave's game-to-game volatility is evident in his equal 6-game streaks for both overs and unders, suggesting his usage fluctuates significantly based on game script and matchup. The Saints' inconsistent offensive approach and Olave's role as a deep threat rather than a high-volume possession receiver likely contribute to this pattern. His reception totals appear more dependent on big-play opportunities than consistent targets, making the under a mathematically sound play despite the slightly over-heavy record. The key concern is whether this 0.3-reception edge represents sustainable value or simply reflects a small sample of unfavorable game scripts that could regress.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.3-reception differential between Olave's average and typical lines creates consistent value for under bettors, supported by the superior ROI compared to overs. Target games where the Saints face strong pass defenses or are expected to control the game on the ground, as Olave's deep-threat role makes him more game-script dependent than possession receivers. The main risk is positive regression toward his over record if the Saints' offensive approach shifts more target-heavy.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Olave's Receptions prop record all games?
Chris Olave has gone over his receptions prop in 12 of 23 games (52.2%) while going under 11 times. His current streak shows 1 consecutive under after experiencing both 6-game over and under streaks during this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Olave Receptions all games?
Lean under on Chris Olave receptions props. His 4.78 average sits 0.3 receptions below typical 5.07 lines, and under bets show better ROI (-8.7%) compared to overs (-0.4%), creating mathematical value for disciplined under betting.
What's Chris Olave's average Receptions all games?
Chris Olave averages 4.78 receptions per game across 23 contests, which falls 0.3 receptions short of his typical 5.07 prop line. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations creates a small but exploitable edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Olave reception unders when the Saints face strong pass defenses or are favored in games where they can control pace. His deep-threat role makes him more volatile than possession receivers, creating better under value in defensive matchups.