Chris Olave's receiving yards have systematically fallen short of expectations over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 48.2 yards against a 61.8 line. This -13.6 yard differential represents a clear market inefficiency favoring unders.
Expert Analysis
The Saints' offensive struggles have created a persistent disconnect between market expectations and Chris Olave's actual production. Averaging just 48.2 receiving yards against lines set at 61.8 suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to New Orleans' diminished passing attack effectiveness. This 13.6-yard gap isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental shift in how the Saints deploy their aerial weapons. Olave's 4-6 over/under record with a -23.6% ROI on overs indicates books are slow to adapt their pricing models to the team's offensive limitations. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 games suggests systemic factors rather than random fluctuation. New Orleans has struggled with quarterback play, offensive line protection, and game script management, all directly impacting Olave's ability to reach inflated receiving totals. While regression toward career norms remains possible, the underlying offensive infrastructure issues appear persistent. The Saints' tendency toward conservative game plans and shorter passing concepts has capped Olave's ceiling, making unders the mathematically superior play. However, bettors should monitor for potential coaching changes or quarterback improvements that could rapidly shift this dynamic.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 13.6-yard negative differential and 60% under rate over 10 games creates a measurable edge, particularly when combined with the Saints' ongoing offensive struggles. Target unders when Olave's line exceeds 55 yards, as books appear slow to adjust. Main risk is potential offensive scheme changes or improved quarterback play that could quickly reverse this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 68.5 | 13.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 49.5 | 107.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 50.5 | 5.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 58.5 | 10.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 60.5 | 87.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 86.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 58.5 | 81.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 64.5 | 11.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 70.5 | 56.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 70.5 | 26.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Olave's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Chris Olave has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with 6 unders. His over bets would have lost 60% of the time while generating a -23.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Olave Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Chris Olave's receiving yards. He's averaging 48.2 yards against a 61.8 line over 10 games, creating a 13.6-yard edge. Under bets show +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs.
What's Chris Olave's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Chris Olave is averaging 48.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 61.8 yards. This represents a significant 13.6-yard underperformance that suggests consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Olave under bets when his receiving yards line exceeds 55 yards, as the Saints' offensive struggles create the largest edge against inflated totals. Avoid betting after potential coaching changes or quarterback improvements.