Chris Olave has been a consistent under play in divisional games, hitting just 30% overs across 10 games with an average of 43.0 yards against lines averaging 66.5. The -23.5 yard differential and +33.6% ROI on unders creates a strong lean under edge.
Expert Analysis
Chris Olave's divisional struggles stem from the Saints facing familiar defensive coordinators who have extensive film and specific game plans to neutralize his route-running precision. Divisional opponents like Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina have deployed bracket coverage and physical press techniques that disrupt Olave's timing-based routes at the line of scrimmage. The 43.0 yard average represents a massive 35% reduction from his typical output, indicating these aren't random variance but systematic defensive adjustments. The Saints' offensive line struggles become magnified against divisional pass rushers who know their tendencies, forcing quicker throws that limit Olave's downfield opportunities. New Orleans has also leaned heavily on short-area targets to Alvin Kamara and tight ends in divisional games, reducing Olave's target share in favor of higher-percentage completions. The current two-game under streak extends a pattern where Olave has hit four consecutive unders at one point this season. While regression is always possible, the structural advantages divisional opponents possess through familiarity and preparation suggest this trend has staying power, especially given how consistently it's manifested across different game scripts and Saints offensive coordinators.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and -23.5 yard differential in divisional games reflects genuine schematic disadvantages rather than random variance. Target this play when Olave's line exceeds 60 yards against NFC South opponents, particularly on the road where communication issues compound the Saints' offensive struggles. The primary risk is a potential blowout where garbage time inflates his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 68.5 | 13.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 50.5 | 5.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 60.5 | 87.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 64.5 | 11.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 70.5 | 56.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 70.5 | 26.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 71.5 | 28.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 67.5 | 114.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 72.5 | 4.0 | -68.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 68.5 | 86.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Olave's Receiving Yards prop record divisional games?
Chris Olave has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 3 of 10 divisional games (30% rate), with 7 unders. He's averaging 43.0 yards against lines that typically sit around 66.5 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Olave Receiving Yards divisional games?
Bet under on Chris Olave's receiving yards in divisional games. The 70% under rate and -23.5 yard average differential create a strong edge, especially when his line exceeds 60 yards.
What's Chris Olave's average Receiving Yards divisional games?
Chris Olave averages 43.0 receiving yards in divisional games compared to typical lines around 66.5 yards. This -23.5 yard differential represents a 35% reduction from his expected output against division rivals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Olave receiving yards unders in divisional games when his line exceeds 60 yards, particularly on the road. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers significantly.