Chris Godwin's reception props in conference games present a compelling over opportunity, hitting at 61.1% with an 11-7 record across 18 games. His 6.0 average significantly outpaces the typical 5.22 line, creating consistent value with a +16.7% ROI. This is a lean over situation with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
The 0.8 reception differential between Godwin's conference game average and his typical line represents a meaningful edge that speaks to how sportsbooks consistently undervalue his production against NFC opponents. This 61.1% hit rate over 18 games suggests more than random variance—it points to systematic factors favoring Godwin's target share in divisional and conference matchups. The +16.7% ROI on overs validates this isn't just a high-volume situation but a profitable one. Conference games often feature more familiar defensive schemes, allowing Tampa Bay's offensive coordinators to exploit specific matchups they've studied extensively. Godwin's role as the primary slot receiver becomes even more crucial when facing defenses the Bucs see twice yearly, as these units typically focus their game-planning on limiting Mike Evans on the outside. The 6-game over streak as the longest run indicates this trend can sustain momentum, while the modest 3-game under streak suggests any regression periods are brief. However, the lack of recent form data creates some uncertainty about current usage patterns, and conference games can sometimes feature unexpected game scripts that limit passing volume if Tampa Bay builds early leads against weaker NFC opponents.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.8 reception differential and 61.1% hit rate create legitimate value, particularly when Godwin's line sits at 5.5 or below in conference matchups. Target spots where Tampa Bay faces competitive NFC opponents likely to keep the game script pass-heavy. The main risk involves blowout scenarios where the Bucs control the game early, potentially limiting Godwin's second-half opportunities and capping his reception total below expectation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receptions prop record conference games?
Godwin's reception props in conference games show an 11-7 over record (61.1%) across 18 games from September 2023 to October 2024. His 6.0 average receptions significantly exceeds the typical 5.22 line, generating a +16.7% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receptions conference games?
Lean over on Godwin's reception props in conference games. The 0.8 differential between his 6.0 average and typical 5.22 line creates consistent value, especially when his line is set at 5.5 or below against competitive NFC opponents.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receptions conference games?
Godwin averages 6.0 receptions in conference games compared to the typical 5.22 line, creating a favorable 0.8 differential. This gap represents meaningful value that has translated to profitable over betting with a 61.1% hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Godwin reception overs when Tampa Bay faces competitive NFC opponents with his line at 5.5 or below. Conference games against familiar defenses that focus on limiting Mike Evans typically increase Godwin's target share and reception opportunities.