Chris Godwin's reception props show minimal edge with a 52.0% over rate (13-12-0) and slim +0.3 average differential above lines. The negative ROI on both sides (-0.7% over, -8.4% under) suggests efficient market pricing. Lean slightly toward overs given the positive differential.
Expert Analysis
The Chris Godwin reception market demonstrates remarkable efficiency, with his 5.64 average barely exceeding the typical 5.34 line. This tight margin reflects the market's accurate assessment of Godwin's role as Tampa Bay's possession receiver. The 52.0% over rate suggests books are setting lines precisely at his median output rather than his mean, creating minimal systematic edge. The concerning -8.4% under ROI indicates that when Godwin falls short, he typically does so significantly, likely due to game script variations or target competition from Mike Evans and tight ends. His role as a slot receiver provides consistent target volume, but the Buccaneers' balanced offensive approach limits ceiling games. The current two-game over streak aligns with natural variance rather than a meaningful shift in usage patterns. Without clear splits data showing favorable matchups or situations, bettors are essentially coin-flipping on a player whose output closely mirrors market expectations. The persistence of this trend over 25 games suggests Godwin's reception totals are among the most predictable in the NFL, making significant edges rare and requiring precise line shopping to find value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The +0.3 differential provides marginal mathematical edge, but the tight market pricing limits upside. Target lines at 5.0 or lower for stronger value, as Godwin's consistent slot role should produce 5-6 catches in most game scripts. Main risk is Tampa Bay falling behind early and abandoning short passing concepts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receptions prop record all games?
Chris Godwin's reception props are 13-12-0 over/under across 25 games, representing a 52.0% over rate. He averages 5.64 receptions against typical lines of 5.34, showing minimal but positive differential of +0.3 catches per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receptions all games?
Lean slightly toward overs on Chris Godwin's reception props given the +0.3 positive differential. However, the low ROI and tight market pricing suggest limited edge. Only bet when finding lines at 5.0 or below for stronger mathematical advantage.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receptions all games?
Chris Godwin averages 5.64 receptions per game across his 25-game sample. This sits 0.3 catches above the typical market line of 5.34, indicating he slightly outperforms expectations but with minimal edge for consistent profitability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Godwin reception overs when lines drop to 5.0 or lower, maximizing the positive differential. Avoid betting when Tampa Bay faces elite pass defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where game script could limit short passing opportunities.