Chris Godwin has gone under his receiving yards line 60% of the time over his last 10 games, posting a 4-6 over/under record despite averaging 71.2 yards against a 62.6 line. The under bets have generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, creating a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
The disconnect between Godwin's raw production and betting value reveals a classic market inefficiency. While his 71.2-yard average suggests consistent volume, the 60% under rate indicates oddsmakers are consistently overvaluing his ceiling in individual games. This pattern typically emerges when books price in his WR1 upside without properly accounting for Tampa Bay's evolving offensive distribution and game script dependencies. The -23.6% ROI on overs suggests recreational money consistently inflates his lines, particularly given his name recognition and past elite seasons. However, the modest 8.6-yard differential above his average line shows he's not dramatically underperforming expectations—rather, the market is slightly overestimating his weekly floor. The current streak of one under following longer under streaks of three games suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in Tampa Bay's offensive evolution. The key risk lies in potential positive regression, as talented receivers often break through inflated lines in bunches, but the consistent ROI gap indicates this trend has staying power in the current offensive context.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60% hit rate creates a mathematically sound edge, though not overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target Godwin receiving yards unders when his line sits above 65 yards, as the market consistently overprices his weekly ceiling. The main risk is positive regression breaking this pattern, but Tampa Bay's current offensive distribution supports continued value on the under side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 73.5 | 65.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 125.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 64.5 | 64.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 65.5 | 69.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 53.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 62.5 | 117.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 57.5 | 83.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 63.5 | 40.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 56.5 | 45.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Chris Godwin has gone 4-6 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. Despite averaging 71.2 yards against a 62.6 average line, unders have been the profitable side with a 14.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Chris Godwin receiving yards. The 60% under rate combined with 14.6% ROI on under bets creates a clear mathematical edge, while overs have lost -23.6% over this 10-game sample.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Chris Godwin has averaged 71.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 62.6 yards, creating an 8.6-yard positive differential. However, this hasn't translated to profitable over bets due to inconsistent ceiling games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Godwin receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 65 yards, as the market consistently overprices his weekly ceiling. Avoid betting his props in potential shootout games where Tampa Bay may need to throw more than usual.