Chris Godwin's receiving yards props at Raymond James Stadium present a marginal edge with overs hitting 53.8% of the time across 13 games. The minimal 0.3-yard differential between his 58.54 average and typical 58.19 line suggests fair market pricing. Lean slightly toward overs with low conviction.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a perfectly balanced market for Chris Godwin's home receiving yards props, with his 58.54 average sitting just 0.35 yards above the typical line. This razor-thin edge explains the modest 2.8% ROI on overs versus a concerning -11.9% on unders, indicating books may be shading lines slightly low. Godwin's home performance lacks the dramatic splits we often see with other receivers, suggesting his production remains consistent regardless of venue. The 53.8% over rate falls within normal variance for a 13-game sample, making this more about market inefficiency than predictive patterns. Tampa Bay's offensive system under Todd Bowles has maintained steady target distribution, with Godwin's role as the primary slot receiver keeping his floor relatively high at home. However, the recent streak of one under and historical longest streaks of just two games in either direction demonstrate the volatility inherent in receiver props. The lack of significant home-field advantage in Godwin's receiving production suggests this trend may be more coincidental than systematic, though the consistent slight under-pricing by books creates a small but exploitable edge for patient bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 0.35-yard edge and 53.8% over rate provide a minimal but consistent advantage, supported by books consistently pricing Godwin's home lines slightly below his actual average. Target overs when the line sits at 58 or below, particularly in games with projected positive game script. Main risk is the thin margin for error and recent under streak suggesting potential regression.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 73.5 | 65.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 65.5 | 69.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 53.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 57.5 | 83.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 56.5 | 45.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 53.5 | 81.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 78.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 45.5 | 0.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 57.5 | 54.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 59.5 | 66.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 56.5 | 77.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 54.5 | 32.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 53.5 | 58.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Chris Godwin has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of 13 home games (53.8%) since September 2023, averaging 58.54 yards against lines typically set around 58.19 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receiving Yards home games?
Lean toward betting over on Chris Godwin's home receiving yards props. The consistent 0.35-yard edge and positive ROI suggest books slightly undervalue his Raymond James Stadium production.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receiving Yards home games?
Chris Godwin averages 58.54 receiving yards in home games, just 0.35 yards above the typical line of 58.19. This minimal but consistent edge creates value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Godwin receiving yards overs when lines are set at 58 or below in home games, particularly with favorable game script or when coming off an under performance.