Calvin Ridley has delivered exceptional value on receiving yards props over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with a massive +16.7 yard average differential above his lines. The Titans receiver is averaging 75.8 yards against 59.1 yard lines, generating a robust +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
Calvin Ridley's receiving yards surge represents a fundamental shift in Tennessee's offensive identity rather than mere statistical variance. The 16.7-yard differential between his 75.8-yard average and 59.1-yard betting lines suggests the market has been slow to adjust to his expanded role in the Titans' passing attack. This trend appears sustainable given Ridley's target share stabilization and Tennessee's increasing reliance on the passing game as they've fallen behind in contests. The consistency is noteworthy—even during his longest under streak of three games, Ridley bounced back with authority, currently riding a two-game over streak. The 60% hit rate over a 10-game sample provides meaningful statistical significance, while the negative ROI on unders (-23.6%) indicates sharp money has been consistently backing the overs. However, regression concerns exist as books will likely adjust lines upward, compressing future value. Weather conditions and game script present the primary risks, as Tennessee's ground-heavy approach in favorable game situations could limit Ridley's ceiling. The lack of available split data prevents deeper matchup analysis, but the overall trend strength suggests continued profitability in neutral conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Ridley's 16.7-yard average differential above lines represents genuine market inefficiency that should persist for several more games before full adjustment. Target overs when Tennessee faces high-scoring opponents or enters as underdogs, maximizing pass-heavy game scripts. Primary risk remains weather-dependent games and potential blowout victories where Tennessee abandons the passing attack early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 63.5 | 84.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 60.5 | 78.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 67.5 | 41.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 59.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 64.5 | 45.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 59.5 | 93.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 58.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 52.5 | 84.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 52.5 | 73.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 45.5 | 143.0 | +97.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Calvin Ridley's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Calvin Ridley has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), averaging 75.8 yards against betting lines of 59.1 yards. This represents a strong +16.7 yard differential favoring over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Calvin Ridley Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Calvin Ridley receiving yards props. His 16.7-yard average differential above lines and +14.6% ROI for overs indicates market undervaluation. Target neutral weather games with competitive game scripts for optimal value.
What's Calvin Ridley's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Calvin Ridley is averaging 75.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to average betting lines of 59.1 yards. This +16.7 yard differential represents significant value for over bettors in recent weeks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Calvin Ridley receiving yards overs when Tennessee faces high-scoring offenses or enters as underdogs, promoting pass-heavy game scripts. Avoid weather-impacted games and potential blowout situations where ground control becomes the priority.