Caleb Williams has delivered exceptional rushing production in conference games, hitting the over at a 72.7% rate (8-3-0) while averaging 30.82 yards against a 24.41 line for a +6.4 differential. This sustained outperformance with +38.8% ROI makes the over the clear preferred play.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rushing dominance in conference games stems from Chicago's offensive evolution and his natural scrambling ability under pressure. The 6.4-yard average differential above the betting line isn't just statistical noise—it reflects how sportsbooks consistently undervalue his mobility against divisional opponents who know his tendencies. Conference games typically feature tighter defensive schemes and more aggressive pass rushes, creating the exact conditions where Williams thrives as a dual-threat quarterback. His ability to extend plays and pick up crucial yards on designed runs becomes magnified in these higher-stakes matchups. The 72.7% over rate across 11 games represents a significant sample size that suggests sustainable edge rather than variance. While the recent one-game under streak might concern some bettors, it pales against his four-game over streak earlier in the sample. The key factor driving this trend is Williams' comfort level operating within the pocket while maintaining the awareness to escape when necessary. His rushing production isn't dependent on broken plays alone—Chicago's offensive coordinator has increasingly incorporated designed quarterback runs that capitalize on his athleticism. The +38.8% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as oddsmakers appear slow to adjust to his consistent ground production in conference play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 72.7% over rate and +6.4 yard differential provide compelling evidence of market mispricing on Williams' rushing ability in conference games. While the small sample size prevents a high-confidence rating, the consistency of outperformance and underlying factors supporting his ground production make the over the preferred play when the line sits near the 24.41 average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 10.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 26.5 | 37.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 31.5 | 34.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 3.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 31.5 | 39.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 22.5 | 33.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 20.5 | 70.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 5.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 47.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 15.5 | 34.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Williams has gone over his rushing yards prop in 8 of 11 conference games (72.7% rate) with a 8-3-0 over/under record. He's averaged 30.82 rushing yards against a 24.41 average line, creating a +6.4 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Williams' rushing yards in conference games. The 72.7% hit rate and +38.8% ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency, with Williams consistently exceeding expectations when facing divisional opponents who know his tendencies.
What's Caleb Williams's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Williams averages 30.82 rushing yards in conference games compared to the typical 24.41 line, creating a +6.4 yard advantage. This differential represents significant value, as he consistently outperforms sportsbook expectations in these matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rushing overs in conference games when the line sits near his 24.41 average. These divisional matchups create ideal conditions with aggressive pass rushes and Chicago's increased use of designed quarterback runs.