Caleb Williams has hit the over just 50% of the time on passing touchdown props over his last 10 games, averaging 1.1 touchdowns against a typical 1.2 line. The rookie quarterback's touchdown production has been inconsistent, creating a slight lean toward the under in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Caleb Williams's passing touchdown struggles reflect the growing pains of a rookie quarterback navigating NFL defenses for the first time. His 1.1 average against a 1.2 line reveals a consistent pattern of falling just short of market expectations, suggesting oddsmakers may still be pricing in college production rather than his current NFL reality. The even 5-5 over-under record masks underlying volatility, with Williams showing streaky touchdown production that swings between feast-or-famine performances. His longest streaks of three games in both directions indicate he's prone to extended cold spells that can persist longer than bettors expect. The Bears' offensive system under their coaching staff has struggled to create consistent red zone opportunities, often settling for field goals when Williams gets the team into scoring position. Additionally, Williams's tendency to hold the ball too long has resulted in drive-killing sacks near the goal line, converting potential touchdown drives into field goal attempts. The rookie's learning curve appears steeper than initially projected, particularly in high-pressure scoring situations where defensive coordinators can dial up their most complex looks. This developmental phase suggests his touchdown underperformance may persist as he continues adapting to NFL speed and complexity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's consistent underperformance against the line, averaging 0.1 touchdowns below market expectations, creates value on the under. The ideal betting spot comes when the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns, where his 1.1 average provides meaningful separation. The primary risk is a potential breakout performance as Williams gains experience, but his current developmental stage suggests continued struggles in the red zone make the under the sharper play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Caleb Williams has gone 5-5 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. He's averaging 1.1 passing touchdowns per game during this stretch, showing consistent but modest production for the rookie quarterback.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean toward betting under on Caleb Williams passing touchdown props. His 1.1 average falls below typical 1.2 lines, and rookie growing pains in red zone execution suggest continued struggles meeting market expectations in most game situations.
What's Caleb Williams's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Williams averages 1.1 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.2. This 0.1 differential shows he consistently falls just short of market expectations, creating potential value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, providing maximum separation from his 1.1 average. Avoid betting overs during potential breakout spots against weak pass defenses where variance could work against the trend.