Caleb Williams's passing touchdown props present a perfectly balanced 8-8 record with minimal edge either direction. His 1.19 average falls 0.12 touchdowns below the typical 1.31 line, suggesting slight under value, but the razor-thin -4.5% ROI on both sides makes this a marginal spot requiring situational analysis.
Expert Analysis
Williams's touchdown production reflects the growing pains of a rookie quarterback in a Bears offense still finding its identity. The 1.19 average against a 1.31 line reveals consistent line inflation, likely driven by his draft pedigree and Chicago's offensive weapons like DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. However, the Bears' inconsistent red zone efficiency and Williams's tendency to take sacks in scoring territory have capped his touchdown ceiling. The perfectly split 8-8 record masks underlying volatility, with streaks reaching four unders and three overs, indicating game script dependency rather than predictable patterns. Williams shows flashes of multi-touchdown upside in favorable matchups but struggles against elite pass defenses that can generate pressure without blitzing. The rookie's decision-making in high-leverage situations remains inconsistent, often settling for field goals when veteran quarterbacks might find the end zone. Chicago's offensive line issues compound this problem, as Williams frequently faces third-and-long situations that kill drives. The Bears' ground game effectiveness also impacts Williams's touchdown opportunities, with strong rushing performances reducing his red zone attempts. Moving forward, matchup-specific analysis becomes crucial, as Williams's touchdown production correlates heavily with opponent pass defense rankings and pressure rates.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent line inflation creates value on the under, with Williams averaging 0.12 fewer touchdowns than the typical line suggests. Target unders against top-12 pass defenses or teams generating high pressure rates, where Williams's rookie tendencies become most pronounced. The main risk is explosive offensive games where Chicago establishes early leads and Williams finds rhythm in the pocket.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Williams posts an 8-8 over/under record on passing touchdown props across 16 games, hitting exactly 50.0% overs with a -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating perfectly balanced but unprofitable results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Passing TDs all games?
Lean under on Williams's passing touchdown props. His 1.19 average consistently trails the 1.31 typical line by 0.12 touchdowns, creating slight under value despite the balanced record.
What's Caleb Williams's average Passing TDs all games?
Williams averages 1.19 passing touchdowns per game compared to the typical 1.31 line, creating a -0.12 differential that suggests consistent line inflation based on his rookie status and weapons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams touchdown unders against top-tier pass defenses or high-pressure teams where his rookie decision-making becomes most apparent, particularly in primetime spots where lines inflate further.