Bucky Irving has demolished rushing yards props in conference games, hitting the over in 10 of 13 contests (76.9%) while averaging 74.0 yards against a 53.42 line. Despite a recent two-game under streak, the +20.6 yard differential and 46.9% ROI make this a strong over lean.
Expert Analysis
Irving's conference game dominance stems from Tampa Bay's evolving offensive identity and his expanded role against familiar divisional opponents. The 20.6-yard average differential above the betting line suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production in these matchups. Conference games often feature more predictable game scripts where the Buccaneers establish the run early, particularly against NFC South rivals who've struggled defending mobile backs. Irving's 74.0-yard average reflects his ability to break off chunk gains when defenses focus on containing Tampa Bay's passing attack. The recent two-game under streak coincides with tougher late-season matchups, but historically represents Irving's longest cold stretch. His seven-game over streak earlier this season demonstrates the sustainability of this edge. The 76.9% hit rate over 13 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the +46.9% ROI indicates significant line value. Conference games also benefit from Irving's familiarity with opposing defenses, allowing him to exploit specific weaknesses he's studied on film. The Buccaneers' commitment to establishing rushing attack balance has elevated Irving's floor considerably in these divisional battles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Irving's 76.9% over rate and +20.6 differential in conference games creates legitimate betting value despite the recent two-game slide. Target this prop when Tampa Bay faces weaker NFC South run defenses or in games with favorable game scripts. The main risk is regression from the unsustainable 46.9% ROI, but Irving's expanded role and conference familiarity support continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 89.5 | 77.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 90.5 | 89.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 86.5 | 113.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 68.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 152.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 54.5 | 88.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 34.5 | 73.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 30.5 | 44.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 62.5 | 81.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 45.5 | 44.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 37.5 | 49.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 22.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 19.5 | 62.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bucky Irving's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Irving holds a dominant 10-3-0 over record on rushing yards props in conference games, hitting 76.9% of overs. He averages 74.0 yards against a typical 53.42 line, creating a massive +20.6 differential that has generated 46.9% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bucky Irving Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Irving's rushing yards in conference games. The 76.9% hit rate and +20.6 average differential provide strong value despite recent struggles. His expanded role and familiarity with NFC South defenses create consistent upside against the betting line.
What's Bucky Irving's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Irving averages 74.0 rushing yards in conference games compared to the typical 53.42 betting line. This +20.6 yard differential represents significant value, as he consistently outperforms oddsmaker expectations by nearly a full standard deviation in these matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Irving rushing overs in conference games against weaker NFC South run defenses or when Tampa Bay is favored. Avoid after bye weeks or in potential blowout scenarios where game script could limit his touches in the second half.