Bryce Young's passing touchdown props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.7% overs across 15 games with a brutal -10.9% ROI on overs. His 0.87 average sits marginally below typical 0.9 lines, creating consistent value on unders with positive 1.8% returns.
Expert Analysis
Young's home passing touchdown struggles reflect the broader Panthers offensive dysfunction rather than venue-specific issues. The 0.87 average against 0.9 lines creates a small but meaningful edge, particularly when considering the consistency of this underperformance. What makes this trend compelling is its sustainability - Young's limitations as a passer aren't suddenly disappearing at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers' conservative game management, limited red zone efficiency, and Young's tendency toward check-downs rather than end zone strikes all contribute to this under bias. The -10.9% ROI on overs tells a stark story of bettors consistently overestimating Young's touchdown upside at home. While sample size concerns exist with just 15 games, the underlying factors driving this trend remain intact. Young's arm talent limitations and the Panthers' offensive line struggles create a ceiling on explosive plays. The most concerning element for over bettors is how this trend has persisted across different coordinators and personnel changes, suggesting the issue runs deeper than scheme. Weather rarely impacts dome games significantly, but Young's mental approach and comfort level at home hasn't translated to increased touchdown production as many would expect.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.8% positive ROI on unders combined with Young's consistent underperformance creates a sustainable edge. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or 1.5, as Young's 0.87 average provides the best value at those numbers. Main risk is variance in small samples and potential offensive improvement, but the underlying factors supporting this trend remain strong enough to warrant continued under consideration.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Bryce Young's passing touchdown props at home show a 7-8-0 over/under record (46.7% overs) across 15 games from September 2023 through December 2024, with under bets providing positive 1.8% ROI compared to overs' brutal -10.9% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing TDs home games?
Bet under on Bryce Young's passing touchdowns at home. His 0.87 average sits below typical lines, under bets show positive ROI, and the underlying offensive limitations creating this trend haven't been addressed by Carolina's front office.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing TDs home games?
Bryce Young averages 0.87 passing touchdowns in home games, running slightly below the typical 0.9 line with a -0.03 differential. This small but consistent gap creates exploitable value for disciplined under bettors over larger sample sizes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryce Young passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 0.5 or 1.5, as his 0.87 home average provides maximum value at these numbers. Avoid when lines drop to 0.5 flat, as juice typically becomes prohibitive.